[Stats] The best and worst NFL transfers of the deadline

Without having panicked the meters, a final handful of trades took place in 2024 before the NFL transfer market closes. Some teams have been able to maneuver their boat perfectly to secure the services of targeted players. Others took risks that were difficult to elucidate.

However, no amount of madness sending one or more first-round draft picks to a franchise to land a superstar has come to fruition. It is moreover the first time since 2001 that all teams still have their respective first round draft for the following draft after this passage in the season.

List of exchanges on the last day

The good: Za’Darius Smith (DE) hunts in a pack

This exchange is obvious. The entire NFL sphere knew of its existence two days before it was made official. It must be said that on paper, everything clicks. The Lions, orphaned by their superstar Aidan Hutchinson, are looking for a suitable replacement solution. The Browns, mired in yet another reconstruction, are losing weight.

Detroit must replace a player responsible for 45 pressures (4^e) dont 8 sacks (2^e tied) (statistics achieved in 5 matches, PFF). And Za’Darius Smith does not reach such high marks (27 pressures for 5 sacks) his contribution as opposed to Myles Garrett is not negligible.

Nonetheless, Smith is asked to step forward as a No. 1 solution in Detroit’s pass rush. He will have at his disposal inside the line, Alim McNeil and Levi Onwuzurike. Both men are capable of putting pressure (50). And they only ask for one thing, that we let them face each other more often. If Za’Darius Smith owns one pass rush win rate (percentage of times a player is able to clear a block in less than 2.5 seconds) of 10%, the weakest of his careerhe was still at 21% last year and is used to attracting attackers to himself (28% of the time with two defenders to beat in 2022).

If it is not the panacea, Za’Darius Smith has what it takes to unlock situations for a team that is playing for the title.

Best NFL Transfers 2024: Marshon “Gandalf” Lattimore (CB)

The Marshon Lattimore trade is much more surprising. It took an alignment of more or less expected circumstances. First, the Saints had to go completely off the rails, suffering 7 defeats and thanking their head coach. The era is one of renewal in Louisiana. Then, the Commanders surprised the NFL with Jayden Daniels already rookie of the year and acclaimed coaching. But a problem persists in the capital, the pass defense.

Indeed, over the first half of the 2024 campaign, the Garnet cornerbacks are not up to par. The forces present are Emmanuel Forbes, Benjamin St-Juste and Mike Sainristil. The first, former first round draft pick, is a walking disappointment. He only started one game in 2024 (106 games played in total). Forbes is reliant on an extravagant 24.6% career missed tackles. And finally, he conceded 729 yards as the closest passing defender (66.7% of completed passes, PFF).

Holders Mike Sainristil and Benjamin St-Juste are doing better. They tackle well (respectively 6.7% and 9.1% of missed tackles this year). But they also leave visible defensive generosity when it comes to covering (250 and 441 yards allowed). In Sainristil’s defense, the player discovers the outside position. He defended in the slot 72% of the time in college.

Marshon Lattimore is a clear and immediate improvement. This season the cornerback is a glue that is impossible to get rid of. Opposing quarterbacks avoid throwing at him (only 9.7% of his plays in coverage, 2^e weaker). And when they do, they bite their fingers (12.3% fewer completed passes compared to expectations, 3^e). Marshon Lattimore trade comes balance a squad that difficult to defend man to man against the pass (0.175 EPA/game allowed, 5^e weaker) while she uses it 36% of the time (6^e).

Marshon Lattimore has not allowed a TD in single coverage since the 2021 season pic.twitter.com/PtbJmpNU7l

— PFF (@PFF) November 5, 2024

The worst NFL transfers 2024: Jerry Jones has delusions of grandeur

Jonathan Mingo is a receiver, drafted by the Carolina Panthers in 2023 with pick number 39 in the second round. If at the time his rating had increased during the pre-draft process, the reality is different only after a year and a half in the league. Except for one man, Jerry Jones (owner and general manager, Cowboys). The man leading America’s team has more faith in his personal assessment than anyone has seen in the NFL.

Jonathan Mingo is therefore a receiver, well built with his 188 cm and 100 kg on the clock. One might expect an outside target capable of winning contested one-on-ones. This is not the case since Jonathan Mingo only caught 25% of shots in contested situations in NFL (4/16). His hands just aren’t reliable enough. The receiver has fumbled 9.8% of his balls in the professional league, and 10.3% if we go back to his precursor university career.

University is also a good indicator of its use. During his first 3 years at Ole Miss, Jonathan Mingo was deployed in outside positions (87.9% of plays in 2021) without much success (1.66 yards per route run). His coach therefore decided to move him closer for his final year by using him 35% of the time in the slot, and even 9.1% in a tight-end position. That year, Mingo had his career bests with 2.14 yards per route run and 5 touchdowns (PFF).

At the top level, Carolina kept this use in slot for Jonathan Mingo (36.9% of games in two years). An obligation as the player runs his routes very poorly. The receiver just doesn’t know how to separate. It reaches a starving 0.75 yards per route run in his NFL career. All with a very respectable sample of 110 passes thrown in his direction. Since 2000, out of all receivers who have caught more than 50 passes in their career, Jonathan Mingo is the least prolific (526^e).

Jerry Jones therefore better have a plan for his new player. Problem, the slot, the only position where he can exploit his “talent” after reception (5.6 receiving yards per reception in 2024) is already majority occupied by CeeDee Lamb (53.8% of games in 2024). The outside being a very bad idea, repositioning as a tight end could be a way out.

Dallas fans don’t understand how their team could trade a 4^e draft round for such a profile. It’s difficult to convince them when Diontae Johnson, DeAndre Hopkins or Amari Cooper, although older, leave for less than that.

Among 72 WRs with at least 50 receptions since the start of last season, Jonathan Mingo ranks:

– 72nd in receiving yards (539)
– 71st in yards per route run (0.75)
– 72nd in catch rate (49.5%) https://t.co/g4bTX1PAzP pic.twitter.com/v3dxaio96A

— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) November 5, 2024