And no, it’s not because in November – according to the more advanced analytics – they already have a 38.3% chance of winning the next ones NBA Finalsbut for another inconceivable percentage: 56.3%.
This year i Boston Celtics they are taking 56.3% of their shots from behind the three-point line: this is not only a +9.2% compared to last season (in which they were first in the NBA), but most likely a percentage that will remain stable until the beginning of April and will become by far the highest in history – surpassing the Rockets’ 51.9% in 2019.
Almost 10 years ago, in the 2015-16 season, Stephen Curry and his Golden State Warriors have definitively altered the concepts of “good” and “bad” shooting, imposing the They basketball and demonstrating to the world that that, however revolutionary, could also have been winning.
Now, just over a month from 2025, it seems like we are truly at the gates of a new era: i Joe Mazzulla’s Celtics they are going where no one has ever tried to venture; demonstrating once again – to all the other 29 teams – that that is the path to follow to win.
The revolution that transformed the NBA
In the NBA the three point shot was introduced way back in 1979, yet from 1996 (the year in which advanced statistics began to be recorded) to 2011 the percentage of triples attempted total respect for shots has always fluctuated between 12 and 22%.
In the last 12 years – counting all 30 teams – it has gone from 23 to more than 42% (an increase of 19%!!).
It is interesting to see, among other things, how the highest jump occurred between 2016 and 2017 (+4%)… Does “73-9” mean anything to you?
Every time a team wins the title, everyone tries to analyze how they did it. Everyone has seen the success they have had with their offense and that’s why teams will try to adapt to this new type of basketball
Jalen Brunson
Speech that perfectly explains why after a season in which the percentage it seemed to have stabilized (the Nuggets won the title with 36.1% of three-pointers) there was a new surge.
All teams know that the recipe used by the Celtics to win last year’s title includes a good dose of triples; but he also knows it well Joe Mazzulla:
Basketball is driven by analytics and as a result people follow them. Luckily we have them too, but above all we have the right players to follow them
Joe Mazzulla
But why are so many triples shot?
The answer does not seem difficult: because they are worth 3 points instead of 2. And even if the reasoning is fundamentally correct, non this is the main motivation.
Already at the beginning of 2015 i Warriors they had understood what the other teams began to understand a few years ago: shoot and score threes forces opponents to defend 7-8 meters from the basket and accordingly creates space for all other shotsespecially the most profitable ones such as iron shots.
The volume should increase. Shooting threes, even without scoring, expands defenses and allows us to find better shots throughout the game.
Devin Booker
Words that are also confirmed in the data: in the last 12 years – in parallel with the volume of triples attempted – the value of two-point shots has increased (from 0.95 to 1.08 points per shot).
The positive effects of the three-point shot – even from the purely arithmetic side – have almost never been linked to triples: shooting threes means scoring more two-pointers.
For the third consecutive year, the value of a generic two-point shot And higher than that of a triple (the last time this happened was 1989!).
And in a championship where numbers, percentages and analytics in general play a fundamental role, it is easy to understand why in the last 20 years there has been a polarization such extreme conclusions.
It is no coincidence that most of the shots attempted by NBA teams in recent years are taken mainly from two positions: in the area and from the corner – where each shot is worth 1.26 and 1.19 points respectively.
The goal is not to shoot more, but to always find the best shots
Joe Mazzulla
Will the NBA shoot more three-pointers than two-pointers in the future?
Steph Curry did he revolutionize basketball? Yes, or rather: it incredibly accelerated the metamorphosis of an NBA that was already starting to show the first signs of change.
Now the question that arises is: How long will the growth of three-point shooting continue?
In reality, no one has an answer yet. Not even Mazzulla.
The data, for now, tell us that in basketball the most successful i two-point shots they are still the most used type: Thunder (14-4) e Cavs (17-2), first in their respective conferences, both have a percentage close to 42% of triples attempted compared to the total (in line with the average for the entire NBA).
But if June, the winners of the Larry O’Brien Trophy were again Boston Celtics …well, we could actually get into it a new era.
