Until January 20, 2025, the war will not stop flying over Europe. Both in the form of intercontinental ballistic missiles launched by Putin – a kind of appetizer of his constant nuclear threat – and with rhetorical outings, such as those of General Valery Zalujni – former Ukrainian military commander and now ambassador in London – which are not ‘it is to say that the Third World War has already broken out, but the European allies do not want to realize it. War may indeed be hovering over Europe, but it does not appear to have any intention of landing. And how should it be, of intention, if there is only one month and three weeks left for Donald Trump to proclaim himself master of the West and at the same time a friend of Vladimir Putin, master of a sixth of the world.
It doesn’t seem to me that we are living with World War III on the horizon. Where it seems that we have begun to travel is through the times that foreshadow the path of an armistice between Moscow and Kyiv. We live the escalation that precedes the agreement. And the first indication would have emerged from Donald Trump when he announced the appointment of retired general Keith Kellogg – his former head of National Security – as the person in charge of ending the war in Ukraine. All in all, until Kellogg arrives and deploys his mechanisms, we will continue to be observers of threats and a lot of chatter. It is curious that Volodymyr Zelensky had expressed optimism saying that with Trump the war would end more quickly. Perhaps he sensed Kellogg’s arrival.
Zelenski can’t take it anymore, having to put up with Russian drones hacking defenses and energy systems almost every day. Ukraine does not see how to endure the winter or face 2025. Instead, Putin sees 2025 with optimism paradoxically for the same reasons as Zelensky: because with Trump taking office everything will go faster. The Russian dictator does not deny that there is a need to move quickly because he does not want the war to become a frozen conflict that would give room to Western allies to rearm Ukraine. Just as NATO and the European Union fear that a peace agreement overseen by Trump, and placing Ukraine in fragile neutrality, will give Putin the impetus to continue attacks in the medium term.
What is the solution?
Looking at Europe, and a little at the United States, I am not saying that the ambiguous solutions, accompanied by laziness and parsimony, like so many we have seen – from the Leopard and the F16s that did not quite arrive to the missiles sent by Biden in response—they cannot be called solutions. And holding fast to the words – even if we don’t like the person who says them – I propose not to overlook Putin’s words assuring, according to Reuters, that he is ready to discuss a ceasefire with Trump: he already detected from the Kremlin General Kellogg’s mission? But the suspicion arises: maybe it’s just propaganda. Maybe Putin is just looking to weaken European allies. Clear and realistic academic voices say that we will get nowhere if the cease-fire and armistice do not provide for demilitarized zones and European intervention troops.
As the month and three weeks to January 20 tick by, the jitters are sure to be mixed with some positive anticipation. Perhaps what is least talked about is the anguish that by now could be shaking the emotional and cognitive system of Donald Trump, and that would raise an unknown: what can happen if the authoritarian impulse – which is there – is imposed in the neurons of a Trump fascinated by Putin, as Angela Merkel has recalled? And what can happen if a few democratic values that are at the origins of his identity as a US citizen remain in his head?
