Several military analysts said this week that Biden’s decision authorizing Ukraine to use long-range missiles, such as ATACMS, to attack targets in Russia perhaps came too late. The reason? Russia has had time to move key assets, such as helicopters and planes armed with gliding bombs, out of range of the missiles, thereby reducing their effectiveness. It is not the only setback for Ukraine. The weapons are literally not working for them.
Defective artillery. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense has reportedly ordered the withdrawal of up to 100,000 120mm mortar shells after identifying serious defects in their operation. The projectiles, manufactured by the state-owned Ukroboronprom, presented failures such as erratic explosions, jams in the launchers and wet powder charges that prevented their proper projection.
According to reports made public, only one in ten shells exploded correctly, and some even failed to exit the mortar.
Causes. While investigating, authorities attribute the problem to irregularities in manufacturing quality or storage. It has also been suggested that recent weather conditions, with increased humidity, could have influenced the handling of the artillery.
Furthermore, and although the problem is limited to a specific batch for now, the magnitude of the withdrawal of all these weapons has provoked criticism of the quality control system in the national production of ammunition.
Strategic impact. It is the other leg in a situation as extreme as a war conflict. The withdrawal directly affects defense capacity at a critical moment in the war. Artillery is essential to contain Russian advances in the east, where attrition and high demand for resources have been constant, even more so in recent weeks with the latest Russian offensives.
The problem also complicates Ukraine’s strategy, which has depended on domestic production to make up for a shortage of projectiles caused by previous restrictions on international aid. Plus: The incident adds to other recent scandals in the procurement of military equipment, such as overpayment for low-quality food and clothing in previous years. Indeed, the Ministry has promised to replace defective ammunition with imported projectiles, but the incident highlights the need to strengthen oversight processes.
The “help” that arrived late. We counted it at the beginning and it links with the 100,000 projectiles. Finally, Biden approved the use of ATACMS missiles to confront the Russian offensive, a decision followed by the rest of the allies, but also, perhaps, a late delivery of weapons to Ukraine, one that possibly reflects that constant pattern of hesitations on the part of the United States and its allies, and that will increase in numbers with the arrival of Trump.
The truth is that the West’s late decision has limited Ukraine’s ability to plan and execute decisive offensives. Indeed, Ukrainian soldiers have expressed frustration over this, describing the support as barely enough to resist, while President Zelenskyy has noted that these limitations harm his country’s ability to respond effectively.
What will happen to Trump? Perhaps it is the big question for the foreseeable last part of the conflict. It is public and notorious that Biden is accelerating aid to Ukraine before the inauguration of Trump, who in turn has been critical of American support for the conflict. Analysts consider this decision to have a more political than military focus, seeking to demonstrate that Ukraine remains a valuable investment.
However, Trump’s allies have questioned the usefulness of the recent measures, and there are concerns that the new administration could pressure Ukraine into unfavorable compromises with Russia to end the invasion once and for all.
Future strategies. As it is, and although ATACMS can still be useful in disrupting Russian (and North Korean) logistics in regions like Kursk, the delays have restricted that publicized potential impact. With less than two months before the new US government takes office, the possibility of a significant military victory using these systems seems nothing short of utopia.
Quite a gibberish for Ukraine, which now faces the challenge of maintaining international support while trying to maximize available resources in an uncertain and high-pressure context.
Imagen | Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
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