A Ukrainian soldier once told me that war is, above all, waiting. That he, an infantry soldier, spent most of the day waiting. Waiting to attack and waiting to be attacked. And knowing how to emotionally manage this wait was key to survival.
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Waiting and war are carefully related. Tammy M. Proctor, historian and professor at the State University of Utah, summed it up this way: “Both for those who fight it and for those who suffer it, the main activity in a war is waiting.” The return of a son sent to the front is awaited. The end of a bombardment is awaited. Awaiting the order to be sent to fight. They are expected whatsapps -before letters-. A win is expected. Death is expected. It is expected, above all, that the war will end.
These days, in Ukraine, we are seeing another wait. A change is expected – or at least sensed – an acceleration of the war. After months and months of stalemate, on the battlefield and in politics, it feels like the conflict is on the verge of a turning point. And the tipping point, as expected, is Donald Trump.
There are about sixty days until the Republican returns to the White House, with his promise to end the war in Ukraine within twenty-four hours. The promise – and especially from whom it comes from – sounds utopian, but this week we have seen that both Kyiv and Moscow take it seriously. Also Joe Biden and therefore the Western Bloc. The Democratic president will take advantage of the last weeks of his mandate to intensify support for the government of Volodymyr Zelensky and prepare it for the window of uncertainty – to put it mildly – that Trump’s return entails. The permission granted this week to fire Western missiles against Russian territory – a red line unthinkable to cross a few months ago – clearly responds to this logic. Putin’s nuclear threat – more and more uncomplicated and normalized -, too.
Trump’s longing for prominence and personal glory is palpable. The Republican has repeatedly accused Biden of being “the war president,” blaming him for the situation in Ukraine and the Middle East. He says that, instead, he will be the president of peace, probably to demand a Nobel again, as he already tried eight years ago with North Korea. Putin, consolidated as a strong part of the conflict, is rubbing his hands: knowing that Trump is looking for peace at all costs, he must already have prepared his wish list in the form of Ukrainian territories. Zelenski is seen as more disoriented: he disguises his concern and plays the ball to Trump, because – you must think – with Trump, you never know.
Double the bet
Both sides are doubling down on getting to January 20, the day Trump will be inaugurated, with the best cards possible. Doubling the stakes in a war usually means doubling the risks. Civilians in Kyiv – and in Kharkiv, and in Kherson, and in Dnipro…– are already preparing for intense rains of drones and conventional missiles, in the best of cases.
Most experts dismiss the specter that hovers over Europe’s dark skies these days: a nuclear attack by Putin. “It’s a bluff,” Cidob expert Carmen Claudín told ARA this week about the change in Moscow’s nuclear doctrine. But it would be naive to ignore that the escalation between NATO and Russia is so pronounced that international politics has assumed the risk of the outbreak of a major war in Europe for months.
This week a reporter from Russia Today asked Putin about the fear of a Third World War. The Russian president quoted Albert Einstein: “I don’t know with which weapons we would fight the Third World War, but I do know with which weapons we would fight the Fourth: with stones and sticks.” It was a message of caution: “The assumption that a Third War can be the end of civilization should hold us all back from taking extreme or dangerous actions in international relations.” Days later, in a speech to the nation, Putin’s tone was different, much more forceful. He was talking about “global war”. In between there had been the first launches of Western long-range missiles against his country, and he was warning NATO directly. “We are ready for any development of fortune-telling. In case anyone still doubts about this”.
I stick, realistically, with a recent conversation I had with a Ukrainian commander. Fighting on the Donetsk front. Since it was for WhatsApp, it was concise.
-What do you expect from Trump’s victory?
-Honestly, I don’t care anymore. Let it be what it has to be.
