Which teams could be ready for SEAGER’s jump?

Translated by Fernando Battaglini

If you’ve ever been to a central shopping location (a mall, a riverside “magical town,” a theme park), you know what it’s like to look at a map to plot your movements. Your eyes scan the place for the note in large letters that tells you “you are here,” and you find slight comfort in the stark reality of what you already know. You’re just trying to get your bearings in this place that lacks windows or clocks or both. What you really want to know is how to get somewhere else, and you’ve already taken the first step.

In this way, the winter season allows us to have the space to see what the teams could try to do next season. They’re already formulating plans to improve over the winter that likely include at least one of the things the Dodgers are good at, even if for many it doesn’t include the most obvious: spending money in free agency.

One way to make improvements is to become more demanding at the plate. However, it is not easy. A team-wide approach to improving SEAGER is a big task, if for no other reason than how difficult it can be to get nine to thirteen hitters on the same page while still being themselves. Generally speaking, there are ups and downs for most clubs from year to year. A big improvement maxes out at a couple of percentage points, emphasizing how small details can have a big impact.

To give you an idea of ​​the value of improving your approach at the plate in this way, consider that half of the top 10 winning teams in SEAGER made the postseason: Baltimore, Kansas City, Philadelphia, the Yankees and the Mets. Four of those teams reached at least the second round, either by virtue of winning in the wild card round or sealing a bye with their regular-season play. The only one who didn’t was eliminated by one who did. The Diamondbacks, who ranked second in the League in SEAGER vault, were in the playoff race until the final day of the regular season. The team that came in 11th place was the Dodgers. It may seem obvious to say that swinging at the right pitches leads to success, but that doesn’t make it unnecessary to talk about it. It’s a good formula.

With the way teams build their own competitive windows, and depending on how much building they actually attempt, some are always closer to a noticeable improvement than others. To be considered here, they would have to rank poorly according to SEAGER, but they have other positive indicators in their favor. Three teams are especially relevant because of how they impacted the ball in 2024 despite their inability to take advantage of the best pitches.

Boston, San Francisco and the Mets all ranked in the top 10 in damage rating, which ultimately meant they were able to carry a ball more consistently than almost any other team. However, the way they attacked the zone meant that they also likely missed opportunities that could have led to greater success.

For the Red Sox, that might look like finishing better than the definition of mediocre with an 81-81 record. The difference between their Damage rating and SEAGER is the largest of any team in the last four full seasons, since we came out of the pandemic. They have had success in the minors with training to improve bat speedwhich is how you get explosions like Kristian Campbell. He went from a casual, contact-oriented hitter to a top prospect over the course of a few months. But that doesn’t necessarily apply to guys who are already in the majors. Even if you factor in his (and/or Roman Anthony’s) arrival, it still means the team could have another step to take when it comes to developing their batting. It’s important to talk about their top prospects because the current leader of the major league teams in SEAGER, Tyler O’Neill, is a free agent. Any misstep could make them look like the 2023 Phillies without the pitching to back them up, stuck as a team that can make you pay if you make a mistake, but also needs that mistake to do anything.

Like Boston, the Giants played mediocre, unremarkable baseball this year, finishing with an 80-82 record in a manner that lacked so much love and charm that the franchise felt forced to fire its general manager and bring in a beloved former player as a figurehead to replace him. The lineup is full of guys over 30, guys who might just be a passing phenomenon and one or two who already were. Or, the variance pendulum could swing again and they’re pushing for a wild card spot because all the players they have in their 20s and 30s have worked out. Matt Chapman isn’t going anywhere and Heliot Ramos looked like a guy in his first long stretch in the majors, which hardly fits into the franchise’s potential willingness to spend. His first step appears to be lateral.

The Mets are an outlier in this trio. After finishing 2023 with just 73 wins, they were hoping to be in a place where they were on the brink of relevance in 2025 if things went right. Now, however, they are coming off an incredible playoff run and appear to have arrived ahead of schedule. Their free agency plans, or their successes, will attract headline attention this winter, which is reasonable. Even a disastrous winter (they lose Pete Alonso, who has the team’s sharpest eye; they fail to sign Juan Soto; they only sign one top pitcher) still leaves them with Francisco Lindor. They would also have Francisco Alvarez and Mark Vientos, who were the club’s second and third best bats according to SEAGER. Although they are better positioned than almost anyone else to spend, they could take a step in either direction and come out better off because of the foundation they already have in place.