Boris Pistorius ist als Verteidigungsminister beliebt. Seine Popularität rührt von seiner forschen, offenen Art. Allerdings weniger von den Erfolgen, die sind eher überschaubar: Die Bundeswehr schrumpft, der Etat stagniert, es fehlt an Personal. Pistorius’ Versuche, mehr Geld zu bekommen, sind gescheitert. Als er die Wehrpflicht reaktivieren wollte, stoppte Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz ihn wegen der Landtagswahlen im Osten. Als er mehr Geld forderte, beschied Fraktionschef Rolf Mützenich barsch, er solle gefälligst nicht aus der Reihe tanzen. Tat Pistorius dann auch nicht. Er könnte es auch gar nicht. Denn in der SPD-Fraktion hat der Seiteneinsteiger ohne Mandat nichts zu sagen: Pistorius darf dort nur sprechen, wenn Mützenich es gestattet.
Scholz hat längst erkannt, dass er sich 2023 mit Pistorius einen möglichen Konkurrenten ins Kabinett geholt hat. Deshalb wurde im Kanzleramt früh begonnen, den rustikalen Niedersachsen zu bremsen, was allerdings auch zulasten der Streitkräfte ging. Scholz handelte nach dem Prinzip: Ich first. Pistorius wiederum unternahm nichts gegen die Scholz-Bremse. Statt seine Popularität in die Waagschale zu werfen, notfalls gegen den Kanzler etwas zu riskieren, gab der Verteidigungsminister klein bei. Seinen Etat, der eigentlich um mindestens zehn Milliarden pro Jahr wachsen müsste, nannte er „ärgerlich“. Das war’s dann auch.
In der Fraktion hatte Pistorius bislang nur wenige Unterstützer mit Einfluss. Viele solide Verteidigungspolitiker der SPD wurden von Mützenich und den Parteilinken längst kaltgestellt. Auch zum SPD-Obmann im Haushaltsausschuss hat Pistorius keinen guten Draht. Seinen Kurs der „Kriegstüchtigkeit“, den er eine Zeit lang offensiv vertreten hat, lehnen große Teile der SPD-Fraktion ab, darunter der Vorsitzende.
Pistorius liegt in einer Frage mit der Fraktion über Kreuz
Kurz gesagt glaubt Pistorius, dass man die Bundeswehr und Europa gegen ein aggressives Russland stärken muss, während seine Gegner meinen, es sei besser auf eine Art Friedensdiplomatie unter Wahrung der Interessen Moskaus zu setzen. Pistorius müsste sich also eigentlich von seinen Kernüberzeugungen lösen, wollte er in der SPD-Fraktion Unterstützung für eine Kanzlerkandidatur gewinnen. Dass es nun doch solche Stimmen gibt, ist Ausdruck der blanken Angst bei vielen Sozialdemokraten vor dem Wahlergebnis.
If Pistorius left the Defense Ministry prematurely in the middle of the upheaval in order to pursue his candidacy for chancellor, it would be seen as a breach of loyalty in the Bendler bloc. For years, the ministry was a springboard or water heater for ambitious politicians who wanted more. Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg, Ursula von der Leyen and Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer (all from the Union) had aspired to higher things. Pistorius was the first defense minister in a long time to credibly assert that that was exactly what he wanted to be. And no more.
If he wanted more now, there would be a blank space. And it could give the impression that Pistorius is closer to his career and the SPD than to the country and its security. And this is in the middle of a change in the American government. In the five or six months until a new cabinet is formed, someone would have to conduct official business conscientiously, travel to Washington, and deal responsibly with the ministry’s daily tasks and crises.
Where Pistorius has a big disadvantage
If Pistorius ignored all of this, what would his organizational starting position be? Scholz has been preparing his candidacy again since winning the election three years ago, together with proven employees and loyal ministers such as Chancellor Wolfgang Schmidt and Steffen Hebestreit, his spokesman. Friedrich Merz, the Union’s candidate for chancellor, has been converting the Adenauer House into his headquarters since the beginning of 2022 and has the parliamentary group behind him. For the Greens, Robert Habeck designed his application over months of hundreds of discussions, built up solid press and communication systems, and set up a robust working staff at the party headquarters.
That doesn’t guarantee success. But not having all of this means a serious disadvantage in the competition for office. Measured against these major campaign engines, Pistorius would lead into battle on a moped. In the ministry, in addition to his tried and tested State Secretary Nils Hilmer and office manager Christian Heusermann, he primarily has staff officers at his side. Capable organizers of the armed forces, certainly. But hardly any election campaigners.
And what a signal that would be to the Bundeswehr if Hilmer also left the ministry to help the SPD campaign. Pistorius’ spokesman, Michael Stempfle, comes from television; the minister previously knew him as a security reporter for ARD. Stempfle never had anything to do with the SPD and campaign planning. Nor is it known that he would aspire to it.
Pistorius was a witness when the “Schulz train” derailed
Pistorius would therefore have to rely entirely on the SPD party headquarters. This has already done serious damage to the penultimate SPD candidate, Martin Schulz. His rapid decline from party chairman and locomotive driver of the “Schulz train” to backbencher in the SPD faction is an instructive example. In 2017, Schulz had no team and no support in the Willy Brandt House. The only man he could rely on, employee Markus Engel, was unavailable due to illness in the middle of the current election campaign.
The “Schulz train” derailed. Pistorius was an eyewitness at the time; he was part of Schulz’s team as an internal politician. After that, the SPD was sure that it would take at least a year to prepare solidly for a candidacy. Scholz did that. The party announced his candidacy 13 months before the election, in close consultation and well prepared. Pistorius had three months left, including Christmas.
Planned preparation, on the other hand, is the magic word for Olaf Scholz: Never before has a politician been able to prepare as well as he did for becoming chancellor. He spent a long time looking over his predecessor Angela Merkel’s shoulder at the cabinet table. He wrote books that his people still recommend reading today, because they reveal the great plan. In general: Scholz has a plan, that was his credo for a long time. The main thing is not to lose control. In this respect, one can imagine how the current uncommanded chancellor candidate question in the SPD might be repugnant to Scholz’s nature.
There was respect for Scholz, but there was never any adoration
It was an arduous journey for Scholz to get the recognition and applause of his own people. They had respect for him from the beginning, but there was never any affection or even adoration. Together with today’s Federal Construction Minister Klara Geywitz, the political professional Scholz lost the membership vote against the largely unknown Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans. But Scholz was already tough back then, remained finance minister and prepared his candidacy, which led to success. One may sometimes be amazed at Scholz’s self-confidence even under the most adverse circumstances – but it has a clear, understandable origin.
Esken and Walter-Borjans’ campaign also included a young member of the Bundestag, Wiebke Esdar. She soon made a career and is now the spokeswoman for the Parliamentary Left, one of the two powerful wings in the SPD parliamentary group. And now Scholz and Esdar meet again. Together with Dirk Wiese, the spokesman for the conservative Seeheimer Kreis, she found words that sound like something from an obituary: “With some distance, his work and his decisions for our country will certainly be viewed far more positively.”
This means that the two most important currents in the SPD parliamentary group have lowered their thumbs over Scholz. Esdar and Wiese are also the chairmen of the large NRW state group. While the Chancellor is doing world politics at the G-20 summit in Rio de Janeiro, the gap at home within his SPD is growing ever larger. Who else is on the side of the ditch next to the Chancellor? They are the two people who have accompanied him for many years. Government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit and Chancellery Minister Wolfgang Schmidt.
Support for Pistorius even on the party left
They have been explaining the Chancellor’s policies for years and trying to make successes visible. Especially with Schmidt, the question arises as to when he actually gets to sleep, given all the engine room and explanatory work he does for Scholz. Because he now has to campaign on his own behalf. He is running for the Bundestag in a Hamburg constituency. Some observers want to see this as a safeguard for the time after Chancellor Scholz. Until then, his loyalty should be unbreakable. As a top politician you first have to find someone like that.
If Scholz isn’t as popular as Pistorius, is he at least more hard-working and successful, as his people keep emphasizing? In fact, Scholz has dealt with almost all aspects of politics during his years in office. One can assume that he has a well-founded assessment of every policy area. Pistorius has not been heard saying anything about pensions or inheritance tax in recent years.
Specifically, Scholz’s credit side is that he overcame the energy crisis after the Russian war of aggression and provided ongoing aid for the invaded Ukraine. The Chancellor sees himself on the right track with his middle course: being the second largest supporter while simultaneously drawing red lines, such as the delivery of the Taurus cruise missile. Pistorius supported Scholz’s decision to stick with the no to delivery even after the American release of long-range weapons. But he would clearly stand for a clearer course of support, closer to the line of the Union and Friedrich Merz.
Actually, this course should meet with criticism from the left wing of the SPD. The fact that their spokeswoman Esdar has now commented positively on Pistorius illustrates the seriousness of the situation and the fear. Similar with the Seeheimer Kreis, albeit with a different sign: Until recently, Scholz’s portrait was printed on cloth bags, that’s how great they thought it was. But, this is now clear: Scholz does not enjoy great authority, his word cannot end debates, and the fear of the current Chancellor being dismantled does not have a deterrent effect on many.
