Who will be the best baseball players this season?
It seems like a relatively simple question, but when it comes to making baseball predictions, there’s nothing easy about it. At least, that’s what we tell ourselves over and over again.
Just before Opening Day, MLB.com brought together 11 writers, researchers and analysts to vote for their favorites by 2024 All-MLB Team.
These so-called experts did their best, but the baseball season always finds a way to get in the way of even the most accurate forecasters.
And that’s exactly what happened here. The All-MLB First and Second Teams, presented by MGM Rewards, were announced last month, with the fan vote counting for 50% of the process. While some results were certainly in line with predictions, there were also many surprises.
How did our panel do? Let’s take a look:
^ indicates that the player received votes in our preseason poll.
Predictions: Adleyrutschman, BAL (1ro) | Will Smith, LAD (2do)
Results: William Contreras, MIL (1st)^ | Salvador Pérez, KC (2nd)
What happened: Contreras (who received consideration from our panel), Pérez, Rutschman and Smith were called to the All-Star Game last summer, which speaks to how close this competition looked. But then Rutschman (.585 OPS) and Smith (.626) fell in the second half, while Venezuelans Contreras (.896) and Pérez (.739) shined in the final part. In the end, the decision wasn’t that difficult.
What we learned: Receivers take a lot of hits. Staying consistent over a full season and also maintaining your level behind the plate is one of the most difficult things in baseball.
Predictions: Freddie Freeman, LAD (1ro) | Bryce Harper, PHI (2do)
Results: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., TOR (1st)^ | Harper (2nd)
What happened: Although Freeman didn’t make the All-MLB Team, he became a legend in the postseason, being World Series MVP on his way to his second championship – a pretty decent consolation prize. Harper settled in at first base the way we expected in his first full-time year at the position. Although some of our voters anticipated a better campaign for Guerrero after an irregular 2023, they did little predict the magnitude of the Dominican’s recovery.
What we learned: Guerrero’s second place in American League MVP voting in 2021 was no coincidence. Although his home run production has not returned to that level, Vladdy resumed his place as one of the elite hitters in the Major Leagues in 2024. If the pace continues in 2025, the imminent free agent will be the jewel of next winter.
Predictions: Marcus Semien, TEX (1 year) | José Altuve, HOU (2do)
Results: Ketel Marte, ARI (1st) Altuve (2do)
What happened: Altuve lived up to expectations, staying healthy to record another solid season in his career. And although Semien finished third in the American League MVP voting in 2023, this season it was Marte who finished third in the race for that award in the National League, with one of his best offensive seasons since 2019.
What we learned: Don’t forget about Semien in 2025 – he’s finished third in MVP voting the last three odd-numbered years (2019, 2021 and 2023) and hasn’t received one in even-numbered years. But seriously, it’s probably time to give Marte some credit at second base.
Predictions: Austin Riley, ATL (1ro) | José Ramírez, CLE (2do)
Results: Ramirez (1ro) | Manny Machado, SD (2do)
What happened: It was a strange year at the hot corner, which went from being one of the deepest positions in baseball in recent seasons to one of few standout seasons. Only three starting third basemen reached 4 WAR (according to Baseball-Reference), the fewest for a full season in 31 years. It reached 10 in 2016 and seven in 2023. One of those three was a consistent producer at bat, the Dominican José Ramírez. On the other hand, Riley had a slow start to the season and then saw his year end when he broke his hand in mid-August, finishing with 19 home runs after having hit at least 33 in three consecutive seasons.
What we learned: Don’t rule out Machado, 32, who was hampered by an elbow injury in the second half of 2023, which led to offseason surgery. That limited Machado to serving as designated hitter at the beginning of 2024, but in his last four months of action he showed off his usual stellar form: .879 OPS, 24 home runs and 76 RBIs in 97 games.
Forecasts: Mookie Betts, LAD (1ro) | Bobby Witt Jr., KC (2do)
Results: Witt Jr. (1st) | Francis Lindor, NYM (2nd)
What happened: Betts, above all, showed his versatility and thought of the team first by moving to shortstop. Although he saw action in that position for a few games in 2024, he returned full-time to right field after returning from a stay on the injured list on August 12. In the end, he was on the All MLB ballot in that position. But even if Betts had remained at shortstop, he wasn’t going to surpass Witt, who broke out as a five-tool superstar at age 24.
What we learned: Betts is projected to return to shortstop in 2025 — but it remains to be seen if he will stay there.
Forecasts: Ronald Coinage Jr., ATL; Julius Rodriguez, SEA; John Soto, NYY (1st) | Fernando Tatis Jr., SD; Aaron Judge, NYY; Corbin Carroll, AZ (2nd)
Results: Soto, Judge, Betts (1st) | Jackson Merrill, S.D.; Jarren Durán, BOS; Teóscar Hernández, LAD (2nd)
What happened: Soto and Judge dominated in the Bronx, with the latter showing a rebound after an injury-interrupted season and winning his second American League MVP award. On the other hand, it was a difficult year for our first team selections, with Acuña out for the rest of the season after just 49 games due to a knee injury; Rodríguez and Carroll also could not overcome their icy first half of the year.
What we learned: Sometimes a star can be unpredictable. Although Merrill showed high expectations as a prospect, there was no reason to think the 21-year-old would learn a new position (center field) in his first major league tryout and immediately become one of the best all-around players in the game.
Forecasts: Shohei Ohtani, LAD (1ro) | Yordan Álvarez, HOU (2do)
Results: Ohtani (1ro) | Álvarez (2nd)
What we learned: We finally got one right, but this was an easy decision. Ohtani, relegated to full-time designated hitter while recovering from Tommy John surgery, authored another campaign to remember. Cuban Álvarez did what he has done practically his entire career: Be a gunner at an elite level. That was enough to overshadow a 39-homer season by Dominican Marcell Ozuna and give us two right picks.
What we learned: Perhaps the surest thing in all of baseball is that Ohtani will find a way to wow us.
Forecasts: Spencer Strider, ATL; Corbin Burnes, BAL; Zack Wheeler, FIL; Pablo López, MIN; George Kirby, SEA (1ro) | Logan Webb, SF; Tarik Skubal, IT; Luis Castillo, SEA; Zac Gallen, AZ; Max Fried, ATL (2do)
Results: Chris Sale, ATL^; Skubal; Paul Skenes, PIT; Wheeler, Burnes (1ro) | Seth Lugo, KC; Dylan Cease, SD^; Shota Imanaga, CHC, Framber Valdez, HOU; Michael King, SD (2do)
What happened: Strider underwent season-ending elbow surgery after just two appearances, and it was another Braves pitcher, Sale, who shined to earn the National League Cy Young Award. Burnes and Wheeler lived up to expectations and looked excellent, plus Skubal. The rest of our teams had solid campaigns, or better, but it was not enough. Some of the other All-MLB starters (Cease, Valdez) were no surprises, but Skenes exceeded their enormous expectations, Imanaga outshone Yoshinobu Yamamoto — his compatriot who drew the most attention — and Lugo amazed everyone by pitching more than 200 innings of high quality in just his second year as a starter.
What we learned: When it comes to predicting pitchers, you’re always at the mercy of whether your elbow ligaments will hold up, which isn’t so certain. But Sale showed that even at 35 years old with a long record of recent injuries, he always has a chance to discover some magic again.
Forecasts: Edwin Díaz, NYM; Josh Hader, HOU (1ro) | Camilo Doval, SF; Andrés Muñoz, SEA (2nd)
Results: Emmanuel Clase, CLE; Ryan Helsley, STL (1ro) | Mason Miller, ATH^; Kirby Yates, TEX (2do)
What happened: Puerto Rican Díaz and Hader still racked up strikeouts at a high rate, but neither was at their usual level in terms of preventing runs. Things got worse for Dominican Doval, who lost his position as closer and was actually demoted to Triple-A for a while in August. For his part, Dominican Clase had a historic performance, improving his ERA from 3.22 to 0.61. Helsley led the Majors with 40 saves in his first year as a full-time closer, while Miller was the breakout flamethrower as a rookie and Yates, at 37, had his best season since 2019.
What we learned: Predicting reliever performances is almost like throwing darts into the wind.
