Washington Commanders | The illusion of success

In September and October, the Commanders established themselves as the Cinderella team of the 2024-2025 season. Unsuspected chemistry, crazy statistics and formidable confidence marked the first weeks of their season. Quarterback Jayden Daniels’ name was already engraved on the Most Outstanding Offensive Rookie trophy. Head coach Dan Quinn’s was associated with genius. And that of offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury was attached to any team looking for a possible head coach.

At mid-season, the Commanders boasted a record of seven wins and two losses. Their chances of landing in the playoffs were growing every week. Faced with the threat, they barked and reared up like German shepherds.

And as if they had transformed into docile little bichons, they are no longer feared as before. They bite without causing any harm.

The Commanders have a record of just one win and three losses in their last four games. They occupy the seventh and last place giving access to the big winter ball and their chances of participating are estimated at 79%. With a loss to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday, they would drop to 59%.

However, no aggravating factor can clearly explain this regression. Over the past four games, the average of touchdowns per game has increased from 3 to 3.5 and the average of points scored has been reduced by only 0.97 points.

Kingsbury’s Honeymoon

However, further research is needed to try to elucidate why team performance deteriorates. Even if no impact player is injured in the long term and the results of the matches resemble those of the beginning of the season.

Over the past four games, the Commanders have averaged 47 fewer yards, their third-down success rate has dropped from 45.66% to 39.58% and their fourth-down conversion average has dropped from 100% to 50%. Washington’s attack has become predictable and detectable. And their production is declining.

Indeed, the great architect of this offensive, Kliff Kingsbury, historically struggles to adapt in the second half of the season. As head coach of the NCAA’s Texas Tech Red Raiders and Arizona Cardinals, Kingsbury has a combined record of 42-20-1 in the first half of the season. Then, in the second part of the season, he stumbled to a 16-43 record.

Kingsbury loves ground games through the center lane. He likes to use short passing plays on the right flank. These are the two options most regularly used in his schemes, by considerable margins. On 45.7% of his plays, the offensive coordinator favors a no-huddle attack. Strategy used to confuse the opponent’s cards. But the element of surprise has worn off.

A demanding schedule

Casually, the Commanders are still in the game. With their record of eight wins and five losses, a sparkling 42-19 victory over the Tennessee Titans in their last game and a well-deserved bye week, optimism reigns in Washington. Either way, this team remains in reconstruction. Or at least, learning.

Soon, Benjamin St-Juste and his teammates will visit the Saints, then return to the American capital to face the Eagles and the Falcons and end their season in Dallas.

A much more complex schedule than this team has become accustomed to. This partly explains its success.

Nine times this season, the Commanders have faced a team that currently has a negative record. They have won eight times. On four occasions, they played against a team with a positive record. They lost all four times.

However, in this league, no confrontation is won in advance. No team wins a match by chance or luck. And the Commanders have come out on top eight times. They are where they need to be.

However, they remain prisoners of a trying sequence. And maybe they’ll just miss the playoffs. Or that they will be eliminated in the first round. And this, despite the euphoria of their beginning.

What if, ultimately, they were just a middle-of-the-pack team? This question becomes legitimate four weeks before the end of the season.

Jayden Daniels wows. Terry McLaurin is making progress. Brian Robinson Jr. surprises. However, the team is at 13^e rank in the overall NFL standings. Its offense is among the most productive, but its defense is one of the most permissive.

The Commanders’ only representative among the leaders in a statistical category is McLaurin, seventh in air yards. Otherwise, no one pierces the top 10in attack and defense, in a basic statistical column.

The Commanders got their season off to a flying start. No one knows how they will finish it. One thing is certain, this team is not yet quite a reflection of what it showed in its first nine games.