A year ago, speculation was rife as Major League Baseball’s winter games approached. It wasn’t a question of whether the Seattle Mariners would trade a starting pitcher for a position player to help their offense, but which pitcher would be dealt.
Of course, the first speech took place without the knowledge that the Mariners were financially constrained in terms of their salary budget.
So while they have been approached by nearly every MLB team about their willingness to trade any of the five members of their projected rotation, specifically right-handers Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo, all of whom have several years of control of the club. , Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto and general manager Justin Hollander opted to keep the group together. The thought: why weaken the strongest part of their team and their best path to success?
“Our pitch is how we are built,” Dipoto said.
This decision to avoid trading a starting pitcher was rewarded with an effort beyond expectations from the Mariners. The rotation was the best in Major League Baseball. It was sustainable, effective and consistent.
Seattle’s starting pitchers have combined to lead MLB in ERA (3.38), innings pitched (942 2/3), quality starts (92), opponent’s batting average (0.223), WHIP (1 .03), strikeout ratio (4.77), fewer walks per 9 innings (1.77), fewer hits per 9 innings (7.53), opponent on-base percentage (.266), opponent OPS (.644).
And yet, the Mariners still failed to make the playoffs.
A team’s strength, no matter how dominant, cannot overcome multiple mitigating weaknesses.
So, with the winter meetings looming (Dec. 9-12) and the Mariners’ projected roster looking unfinished and uninspiring, speculation has begun to swirl. Will Dipoto have to cave and trade one of the starting pitchers for an infielder who can hit in the middle of the order?
Dipoto and Hollander have expressed reluctance to trade a starting pitcher. But they also need to listen to offers from those pitchers while keeping an eye on projected salary budgets for upcoming seasons and salary increases due to salary arbitration.
Current depth chart
MLB: Luis Castillo, RHP, Logan Gilbert, RHP, George Kirby, RHP, Bryce Miller, RHP, Bryan Woo, RHP
Tacoma triple A : Emerson Hancock, RHP, Casey Lawrence, RHP, Logan Evans, RHP, Blas Castano, RHP, Brandyn Garcia, LHP, Jhonathan Diaz, LHP
Double-A Arkansas : Michael Morales, RHP, Jimmy Joyce, RHP, Reid VanScoter, LHP, Danny Wirchansky, LHP, Nick Payero, RHP
High-A Everett : Sheldon Pennyhouse, RHP, Marcelo Perez, RHP, Jordan Jackson, RHP, Ashton Izzi, RHP, Tyler Gough, RHP
Low Modesto A: Walter Ford, RHP, Pedro Lemos, RHP, Aneury Lora, RHP, Jurrangelo Cijntje, SP
Key number
149 — This is the number of starts out of 162 games made by the quintet made up of Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. The Mariners used only seven starting pitchers all season; Emerson Hancock started 12 games and Jhonathan Diaz started one. Although they used fewer starting pitchers than any team in baseball, they still managed to throw the most innings (942 2/3) of any rotation.
Key quote
“We’re not just hoping to avoid it. On the continuum from A to Z, this would be the Z plane multiplied by a denominator. We might shoot ourselves in the foot by trying to be too clever in what we do. Our pitch is how we are constructed. I love our rotation. It wouldn’t be plan A, but we will be open every offseason to any ideas that could improve us. — Jerry Dipoto on trading a starting pitcher
Key question of the offseason
Will the Mariners reach Plan Z and be forced to trade a starting pitcher?
Preview
While the sum of their production numbers is impressive, it also takes away from the importance of individual improvements and achievements.
Perhaps it is better to also look at what they have accomplished individually.
Gilbert was named the Mariners’ most valuable pitcher by local BBWAA writers after putting together his best season in MLB. He led all of MLB with a career-high 208 2/3 innings pitched and WHIP (0.887), two things no other Mariners pitcher accomplished. In 33 starts, he was 9-12 with a 3.23 ERA. He was named to the American League All-Star team and finished sixth in voting for the AL Cy Young Award. He was also the first Mariners pitcher since Felix Hernandez in 2014 to throw 200 innings and strike out 200 batters in a season.
Castillo suffered a mild hamstring strain in the final weeks of the season that forced him onto the injured list and prevented him from matching the 33 starts he posted in 2023. In his 30 starts, he posted a record of 11-12 with a 3.64 ERA. In 175 1/3 innings pitched, he struck out 175 batters with 47 walks and a WHIP of 1.17. He hasn’t been as dominant as he was in 2023, struggling to command command at times, but still recorded 18 quality starts.
Kirby made 33 starts, going 14-11 with a 3.53 ERA in 191 innings pitched with 179 strikeouts and just 23 walks. He set career highs in starts, wins, innings pitched and strikeouts. For the second straight season, he tallied 20 quality starts — something only two other pitchers accomplished — and also led MLB with the fewest walks per nine innings (1.1). Of his 33 starts, he has pitched more than six innings in 22 of them.
In his second MLB season, Miller made 31 starts and posted a 12-8 record with a 2.94 ERA and 18 quality starts. In 180 1/3 innings pitched, he struck out 171 with 45 walks and a WHIP of 0.976.
After spending the offseason working on adding a split-fingered fastball and some in-season adjustments to his breaking pitches, Miller joined Hernandez as the only pitcher to produce an ERA below 3, 00 and a WHIP less than 1.00.
He dominated his opponents at T-Mobile Park, going 6-3 with a 1.96 ERA in 16 starts. In 96 1/3 innings, he struck out 111 batters with just 23 walks.
Woo began the season on the injured list with some forearm discomfort and missed two weeks during the season with a hamstring strain. But when he was healthy, he was dominant. In 22 starts, he went 9-3 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.898 WHIP. He made 15 starts in which he allowed two earned runs or fewer. In 121 1/3 innings pitched, he struck out 101 batters and walked only 13. Opposing batters hit a .211/.237/.337 slash line against him.
His aggressive approach to offensive hitting resulted in a 72.9% first-strike rate, which was the highest of any starter since MLB began tracking first-pitch strikeout percentage in 1988 (minimum 120 innings pitched).
It’s easy to see why the Mariners wouldn’t want to trade any of the five starters.
But if they did, who would fit into that vacant spot?
Hancock, the former first-round pick, would get the first chance. He was useful during Woo’s two stints on the injured list and for Castillo at the end of the season.
In 12 starts, he was 4-4 with a 4.75 ERA. He doesn’t have the fastball speed or offspeed stuff to miss at bats or dominate hitters like the current rotation. But he has proven he can be a No. 5 starter at the MLB level.
Garcia and Evans – the Mariners’ two most ready prospects – could also get an opportunity.
Evans was 9-5 with a 3.20 ERA in 22 starts and 10 relief appearances for Double-A Arkansas last season. The Mariners attempted to briefly convert him to a reliever mid-season, but it did not yield the desired results and returned him to the starting role.
Garcia started the season at High-A Everett, going 6-0 with a 1.84 ERA in 12 starts. He moved to Arkansas and made 13 starts, finishing with an 0-2 record and a 2.83 ERA. The Mariners said they would consider him in a relief role for the MLB bullpen if needed, but would keep him extended as a starter in spring training.
