Image via Sports Illustrated
Thanksgiving weekend brings cold weather, making Fantasy Football interesting with many cold weather games and a high chance of snow on Sunday Night Football, giving Fantasy managers plenty to consider. The weather forecast for the NFL’s nine outdoor games Sunday and Monday will determine which fantasy options are risky this week, which players to avoid and who may gain value due to the cold’s impact on games.
The National Weather Service’s weather forecast for the games is current as of 5 a.m. ET on Sunday, December 1, 2024, with data provided by TruMedia and all kickoff times are ET.
Steelers vs. Bengals Weather
The Cincinnati Bengals are scheduled to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers at Paycor Stadium, with freezing temperatures and sub-zero wind chills forecast. Over the past ten years, NFL games have been played in temperatures between 30 and 40 degrees Fahrenheit, resulting in a 5 to 10 percent decrease in fantasy point production compared to 50 to 80 degrees. .
Wind speeds above five miles per hour also affect the average fantasy point score, dropping to around 82 per team, a 15 to 20 percent drop compared to warmer games. This has the most dramatic effects on the passing game, where quarterbacks and receivers experience a 10-25% drop in fantasy point production.
Weather Colts vs. Patriots
The New England Patriots take on the Indianapolis Colts on a cold day in Foxborough, with temperatures around freezing and wind chills below zero. This could make it difficult to gain confidence in the passing game, as most of the Patriots’ options were already fringe starters and therefore easier to avoid. Anthony Richardson is a quarterback for the Colts and would be a concern as he has experience playing in hot weather and dome-like conditions. It’s hard to trust his receiving options in these conditions despite his fantasy value, since he relies heavily on his running ability.
Seahawks and Jets Weather
On a cold day, the New York Jets take on the Seattle Seahawks at MetLife Stadium. The temperature is expected to be near freezing and the wind chill is expected to be below that point. Over the past ten years of NFL games, 215 games have been played with kickoff temperatures between 30 and 40 degrees Fahrenheit, an average fantasy points 5 to 10 percent lower than when the temperature is 50 degrees Fahrenheit or better.
Wind speeds above five mph significantly reduce fantasy point scores. Quarterbacks and wide receivers will be reduced by 10-15% of fantasy points, while running backs will be increased, but not significantly as in games played in warmer temperatures.
49ers and Bills weather
The Buffalo Bills will host the San Francisco 49ers at Highmark Stadium. Fantastic forecasts suggest the snow should be less on Sunday, decreasing to 0.6 inches between 1 p.m. ET and 7 p.m. ET. But it is expected to increase from 7 p.m. to 10 p.m. ET with an inch of new snow.
The forecast calls for significant snowfall during Sunday Night Football, with less snowfall during the day to ensure clear fields at kickoff. Both passing matches will be played in snow and wind, as the forecast is constantly changing in terms of the amount of snow.
Browns and Broncos Weather
The Denver Broncos will face the Cleveland Browns on a chilly night, with wind chills in the mid-30s and near-freezing temperatures on the field. However, the wind is expected to be negligible, so there should be no further degradation. A 5-10% decline in fantasy production is not a concern for Monday Night Football managers.
Also Read: Winter Wonderland Alert: Bills, 49ers clash amid heavy snow expected to blanket Buffalo
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