According to a forecast by the American Gaming Association, Americans will bet $7.6 billion on the Super Bowl. The Los Angeles Rams are favorites, with odds predicting a three-point win over the Cincinnati Bengals. Las Vegas bookmakers use computers and algorithms, so the odds are accurate. The most interesting bet, however, should have been made right after the NFL Football League final last year – namely: In Super Bowl LVI quarterbacks Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford will face each other. Anyone who had bet 100 euros back then would be 840,000 euros richer now.
The reasons for this unbelievable payout: Burrow was still recovering from the double cruciate ligament tear he sustained on the eleventh day of the game. The Bengals, who had just two Super Bowl appearances in their inglorious history, had endured a four-win season and there was little hope of improvement. At that time, Stafford was still playing for the Detroit Lions, which for a football career is equivalent to a cruciate ligament and meniscus tear with permanent cartilage damage. A Stafford Burrow Super Bowl? A year ago that sounded like a bad joke.
Football is sometimes referred to as grass chess, and the quarterback is both king and queen for the offensive: incredibly important. But he still needs good pawns, bishops, knights and rooks. Even a good quarterback has a hard time without the right helpers, like Stafford did in Detroit. He solved the problem over the summer break by asking the Lions for a move – I think they traded him more out of pity than strategy (no joke, the Lions really are that bad; they never got that in the Super Bowl era reached the finals, won just one playoff game and had a winless season in 2008) against Los Angeles Rams playmaker Jared Goff.
Has a lot of feeling and strength in his right arm – but Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford often risks a lot because of it.
(Photo: Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP)
Stafford, 34, joined the Rams after 12 dog years in Detroit (which is why some say he’s actually 106 years old), and he noted what viewers will now see in the Super Bowl: Cam Akers arrived after tearing his Achilles tendon in the summer back to the playoffs on time and forms a reliable pair of runners with Sony Michel, not a spectacular one. Pass recipient Cooper Kupp, voted the best offensive player in the league on Thursday evening, is a tower that can be played at any time, even in double coverage. The second wide receiver, Odell Beckham Junior, came on during the season; he has proven time and again in his career that he is one of the most spectacular jumpers and therefore catchers in the league.
Stafford is blessed with a right arm that allows him to throw incredibly far and accurately. But he is punished with the knowledge that he is blessed with this right arm. Not only at the beginning of his career did he believe that he could solve all problems with his throw, sometimes with a technique that looked like he was trying to let a stone bounce on a lake as often as possible. As often as he won games with crazy throws – often just before the end – he often lost them beforehand with grotesque misses.
The quarterback still has a lot of failed attempts in Los Angeles, but – which will also be observed on Sunday – he has learned when it is worth taking a risky throw. As already mentioned: Kupp is almost always playable, Beckham even picks wild throws out of the air. Should Stafford’s guards manage to protect him from the aggressive Bengals defenders around Trey Hendrickson, it could be a spectacular afternoon for the quarterback: The bookmakers in Vegas are forecasting at least three touchdowns for the Rams.
Burrow feels right at home as king and queen on this football chess board
That leads to the Bengals, who had a different approach to this season and therefore a different approach to the Super Bowl. Burrow returned as a playmaker early in the season and reunited with an old acquaintance: Ja’Marr Chase, his favorite pass receiver at Louisiana State University, with whom he won the varsity championship, is now playing with him in the pros. The question was: Do the two also harmonize at the highest level? The answer: Burrow was voted Thursday’s “Comeback Player of the Year” and Chase was named this season’s best young player. The two understand each other blindly, so Burrow can spontaneously dare a wide pass to Chase.
The Bengals also brought in kicker Evan McPherson at the talent exchange, who is having a great first professional season and, precisely because of his success in the playoffs (he made four field goal attempts in each game), makes for an interesting constellation: the opponent knows that the Bengals only need to get close to the opposing 40-yard line for McPherson to have a pretty good chance of a successful kick – giving the Bengals three points. And it can wear down a defense if it prevents touchdowns but still concedes points. Three field goals are worth more (nine points) than a touchdown even with a two-point conversion (eight).
The two cruciate ligament tears are forgotten: Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow feels as comfortable on the field as ever.
(Photo: Marcio Jose Sanchez/AP)
Exactly what that means was seen in the playoffs. Opponents were fed up with McPherson’s field goals every game, and then, with the Bengals back within field goal range, Burrow tried that long shot at Chase, or more rarely, Tee Higgins and CJ Uzomah. In general, Burrow plays with the self-confidence of a guy who has returned after a cruciate ligament tear and has seen that everything is fine. Who is also allowed to gamble with the pros with his congenial teammate from university days. And who knows that he has a kicker who would like to break the record for the longest Super Bowl field goal (currently: Steve Christie in 1994 with 54 yards). He feels right at home as king and queen on this football chess board.
The Super Bowl is often reduced to this duel between the two playmakers, and very often this game is also decisively shaped by one of the two – positively or negatively. What is striking this time: The people in the press center are talking about Stafford and Burrow for folklore reasons and are looking for similarities, but in sport it is more about the minor characters mentioned. Any bet that the two quarterbacks will shape this game is also shown by a look at Vegas: The two favorites to be voted the most valuable player of the Super Bowl are Stafford (odds: 2:1) and Burrow (3.25 :1).
