![[5 books this morning]Carefully selected news to read at the beginning of work –Bloomberg](https://i2.wp.com/assets.bwbx.io/images/users/iqjWHBFdfxIU/i1OUGQz9cNFo/v1/1200x800.jpg?w=1240&resize=1240,&ssl=1 "[5 books this morning]Carefully selected news to read at the beginning of work –Bloomberg")
Representatives from Ukraine and Russia negotiated for the third time, but made no significant progress.Negotiations seem to continue, although expectations were low from the beginning, as President Putin insisted that the war would continue until Ukraine accepted the request on the 6th. President Putin, also known as a judoka. How does he perceive the idea of ”co-prosperity with others” by Jigoro Kano, the founder of judo that he respects? Below are five news items to keep in mind as you start your day.
Negotiations continue
Ukrainian presidential palace adviser said there was “slightly positive” progress in improving the logistical humanitarian corridor, but significant ceasefires and truces.He said there was no result. He also commented that he would “continue intensive discussions” on the truce and ceasefire. The Russian side also said that it would continue negotiations. He also said that the humanitarian corridor would start functioning on the 8th. Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergeĭ Viklov and Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Kleba have agreed to meet in Antalya, Turkey on the 10th, Turkey’s Foreign Minister Chabsior said.
Is it the default?
Morgan Stanley points out that Russia is less likely to pay its external debt. “The most likely scenario isI see it as the default (default). ” Coupon payments for dollar-denominated Russian government bonds, which are due on the 16th, have a 30-day grace period, so the earliest possible default is April 15. Credit default swap of Russian government bonds (The cost guaranteed by CDS) has risen to a record high. It was suggested that the default probability is considered to be about 80%.
Commodity High, Zhu’an
Of the London Metal Exchange (LME)Nickel prices surged to a record high. Short squeeze is occurring against the backdrop of Russia’s supply instability.North Sea BrentcrudeRise to nearly $ 140 per barrel.EuropeanGas prices hit new highs. Chicago’s wheat futures market also hit a new high. Meanwhile, for European stocks, the STOXX Europe 600 index fell to its lowest level in a year.Germany’s DAX index and Euro Stocks 50 index are bothEntered the bear market.
Collapse of demand
Morgan Stanley and Citigroup strategists are on the stock marketExpect big turbulence. We believe that a “collapse of demand” may now be unavoidable. “The risk of decline will continue to be greatest in the next 6-8 weeks,” Morgan Stanley’s Wilson said in a report. “The bear market is clearly not over in terms of duration and extent of decline.” Citi strategists point out that global indicators of corporate profit analyst estimates have turned negative for the first time since September 2020. We analyzed that it may change the outlook for risk assets.
Threat of stagflation
Barclays and JP Morgan Chase are both worldsThe growth outlook has been revised downward by about 1 point, while the inflation forecast has been revised upward by 1 point. “Rising commodity prices and increased risk aversion due to the Russian-Ukraine war suggest a shock to stagflation,” Barclays said in a report.US 10-Year Inflation-Linked Government Bonds (TIPS)The break-even rate was 2.785% at one point, surpassing the record high (2.784%) in 2005.
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