Day 4 on the “Holy Lawn”!
The third Grand Slam tournament of the year is taking place in Wimbledon. Also for betting professional Dirk Raczkowski (34) from “sports betting no. 7” again a major event, which he analyzes down to the last blade of grass.
With his previous Wimbledon tips, however, he had little luck. Raczkowski: “Unfortunately, the start of the tournament wasn’t very successful for us, so we’ll try to correct that from today. Even though WTA bets are historically much better for us than ATP bets, the women have not been very reliable in this tournament so far. Kalinina, for example, made fun of us twice in a row, which was bitter. In today’s three tips, we still share a women’s tip, but add two men’s tips. It starts at 2 p.m. if the weather holds.”
Here are the three bets for Thursday!
2nd Kombi Sorribes Tormo + Frech
You smile Tormo – Tan
Raczkowski: “Even though France’s Tan just defeated Serena Williams, it wasn’t really a big surprise as Serena’s poor fitness and running weaknesses are well known. By the way, Tan didn’t do that well at times, so we don’t overestimate this victory. Since we have bet Tan several times this year, we can generally assess them quite well.
Today we assume that she will smash against the Spanish ball wall (Sorribes Tormo is practically the baddest defensive player on the tour) because in terms of both fitness and consistency she actually has to draw the short straw against Sorribes Tormo.
In addition, there is the double drama about Tamara Korpatsch with the public accusations of the Germans. Anyone who has heard the topic knows that it could also be a mental burden for Tan.”
Frech vs. Schmiedlova
Raczkowski: “Frech stands at 29:17 on grass her entire career. Even if there were some less important matches, that’s a good rate. Recently she played some good games; at the French Open against Kerber, now most recently on grass against Haddad Maia or in the first round of Wimbledon against Giorgi, where Frech won 2-0.
Schmiedlova is 7-15 on grass all her career, a huge difference compared to Frech. In the first round, she defeated Peterson 7-5 0-6 6-3. The Swede hasn’t played a match for over a month and was dealing with a few minor injuries, so this win has little meaning. She is and remains a weak grass player, as she showed in the first round despite her victory. In the end she came up with an absurd 70 unforced errors (with only 18 winners), so you can’t actually win a match on the WTA tour.
Since Frech defends very well on the one hand and on the other hand makes only a few minor mistakes himself, we think the match-up against Schmiedlova is very good. The Slovakian is just so prone to making mistakes, she should sooner or later sabotage herself against Frech’s style of play. You have to remain very stable against the Pole and that’s exactly what Schmiedlova usually lacks.
General quality on grass, current form, significantly better performance in round one and the match-up speak for Frech here, which is why we expect a win from her.
Recommendation: 2 combo victory Sorribes Tormo + victory Frech for 2.14
Photo: Photo: Michael Kreft
” data-zoom-src=”https://bilder.bild.de/fotos/dirk-raczkowski-lives-from-his-income-from-sports-betting-and-the-sale-of-his-tips-on-the-internet- 43c72108af974a1bbe3d522c69edcfa3-80557824/image/2.image.jpg”/> Dirk Raczkowski lives from his income from sports betting and the sale of his tips on the internetPhoto: Photo: Michael Kreft
Bonzi – Brooksby
Raczkowski: “If we had gotten these odds in the first round, we would have been amazed at first. Because Bonzi was in much, much better shape than Brooksby recently. Brooksby’s 3-0 win over Kukushkin, who was pretty pathetic that day, doesn’t change that much in our opinion. Mainly because Bonzi also won 3-0 in the first round and didn’t even allow a single breakball.
Bonzi is 6-2 on grass so far this year and his two losses come from two matches against Tsitsipas. In addition, his six wins were all clean sheets, which makes us even more optimistic for this small handicap. The Frenchman has made a very good impression on us lately, both on serve and in play. He is currently in the best phase of his career and the trend is clearly upwards.
Brooksby is 2-3 on grass so far this season and his two wins over De Jong and Kukushkin came against two non-ATP players. On the other hand, he lost to Gaston, Draper and Krajinovic. They’re a fair bit better, but probably not on the level that Bonzi was playing for the most part lately. If anything, then only Draper – and Brooksby lost against him very clearly with 2:6 2:6.
Brooksby has a pretty specific style of play. He just plays back a lot and tries to prolong the rallies and ultimately force mistakes. Especially on grass, where many players win points quickly, an approach that takes some getting used to. Brooksby actually gets far too few free points for lawn tennis, especially with his own serve. He has to work hard for most points, which is not desirable on grass. As long as his opponents are unstable and make enough mistakes, that’s all well and good, but as soon as the first more consistent player comes along, it can quickly become difficult with the style of play. And that’s exactly the case today, because Bonzi has been extremely consistent lately. The Frenchman will be the acting player in most rallies and Brooksby only the reacting one. Since Bonzi has recently produced significantly more winners than unforced errors and also exuded a lot of calm, we think that Bonzi in his current form could dominate the match here.
Considering the last few weeks and the way the two play, we see Bonzi a bit further ahead than the odds would suggest. The handicap is very humane for a best-of-five match, mostly because Brooksby doesn’t serve that well. All in all, we see good chances for the Frenchman to win with a difference of at least three games.”
Recommendation: Bonzi -2.5 Games – for odds of 2.00. The bet wins if Bonzi wins at least three more games.
Cressy – Sock
Raczkowski: “Two similar types of players – also both Americans – meet here. Both grown very tall, great serve, good forehand, lots of serve & volley on grass, good volley game on the net.
Sock is the better player with the more dangerous forehand, Cressy, on the other hand, is more limited overall, almost only plays slice on the backhand and runs to the net at every opportunity. But he can do that extremely well, which makes it very uncomfortable for many of his opponents.
Sock is the much more experienced one, who has played his way from round to round without losing a set since qualifying, Cressy was recently more active and successful on the ATP tour, so he is currently the hotter player. All in all, Cressy should have a slight advantage from this, but not so much that he should go through here without winning a set.
Given the playing ability of the two, we expect at least one, maybe even two tie-breaks, and there it’s always a matter of luck who wins. We see realistic chances that both players will win at least one set and due to the match-up we assume that there will be no sets with a double break lead and that four sets would be enough to cover the 41.5 line. “
Recommendation: Over 41.5 games – for odds of 1.91. The bet wins if there are more than 41 games in total in the match.
balance sheet
Bets: 6 (1 won, 5 lost)
Result: -4.03 units
With a unit stake per bet and a value of 50 euros per unit, this results in a loss of 201.50 euros.
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