ATP Finals: Federer’s record, number 1 place… The Masters in 5 questions

How could the world number 1 spot escape Carlos Alcaraz?

Before this Masters, Carlos Alcaraz has a fairly comfortable lead in the standings. The 19-year-old Murcian is thus respectively 1000 points ahead of his Spanish compatriot Rafael Nadal and 1470 points ahead of Stefanos Tsitsipas. Unfortunately for him, “Carlitos”, as he is nicknamed, will not participate in the tournament because of an abdominal injury contracted in Bercy. However, enough points are still at stake in this final test for one of his two pursuers to take the world number 1 spot from him.

Three unfavorable scenarios would cause him to lose the throne:

• If Nadal wins the tournament, he will finish the year number 1.
• If Tsitsipas wins the tournament by winning all his matches, he will collect 1500 points, ie 30 more than Alcaraz from which he will take the throne.
• If Nadal reaches the final having won all his group matches (and he does not lose against an undefeated Tsitsipas), the Mallorcan and Alcaraz will be level on points. And Nadal will be ahead of his younger brother thanks to a greater number of points accumulated in the Grand Slams, Masters 1000 and the Masters combined (6070 against 5190).

Nadal, who appeared in bad shape at Bercy, and Tsitsipas are therefore condemned to excellence. Alcaraz is clearly in a strong position, but he can’t defend his chances on the court. Paradoxically, his two pursuers therefore have their destiny in hand.

Who to prevent Novak Djokovic from equaling Roger Federer’s record?

Five-time winner of the event, Novak Djokovic is necessarily the man to beat this Masters. If he wins in Turin, he will equal Roger Federer, record holder for the number of titles (6). In the event of a triumph, the Serb will even surpass his historic Swiss rival as the oldest champion. During his 6th coronation, Federer was 30 years old, Djokovic is currently 35. Fresher than in previous editions – he did not play the North American tour and the US Open this summer because he was not vaccinated -, the ” Djoker” seems in a good position to win a Masters for the first time since 2015.

If we gauge the respective states of form of his opponents, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev, both already crowned in this tournament in 2019 and 2020, seem to be the most likely to cause him problems. They also did it respectively at Bercy and Astana, even if they finally lost (on abandonment for the Russian). Félix Auger-Aliassime will also be one to watch. He had beaten Djokovic in the Laver Cup at the end of September, even if the context was not that of a classic tournament.

What to expect from novices of this Masters?

Félix Auger-Aliassime, precisely, is one of the two qualified to have never previously played in the Masters tournament. He will therefore have to manage his emotions. But the Canadian has no reason not to be ambitious: this fall, he chained 16 indoor victories for three titles (Florence, Antwerp, Basel) and a semi-final at the Rolex Paris Masters. With a powerful serve and return and his power, he has every reason to believe in his chances of success.

Winning the Masters tournament on his first try is obviously not easy, but the performance has been achieved twice in recent years by Grigor Dimitrov in 2017 (undefeated) and Stefanos Tsitsipas in 2019 (with a group loss). For Taylor Fritz, the other newcomer to the competition, the dynamic is not as positive – he was dominated by Gilles Simon at Bercy in the second round – and the ambitions are necessarily more modest. The first objective will be to win at least one match, then why not hope to get out of the pools. If he succeeds, then everything will be permitted.

Can Holger Rune play, and if so, create a surprise?

By winning his first Masters 1000 at the Accor Arena last Sunday, Holger Rune made a remarkable entry into the Top 10. And at the same time, he conquered the place of first substitute at the Masters. He should therefore not play the prestigious event. But in the event of a forfeit, he will take the place of the injured player concerned. Last year, Jannik Sinner and Cameron Norrie replaced Matteo Berrettini and Stefanos Tsitsipas respectively on the second day of the group stage.

If the same scenario were to arise, Holger Rune would therefore have the possibility of playing two matches and even qualifying for the last four or even better (given his current confidence). A withdrawal even before the start of this Masters would allow him to play three pool matches, which would increase his chances of pushing the adventure even further. But if there is no injury to report, he will watch the tournament from the stands.

What will be the playing conditions (court speed, ball weight)?

Who says indoor, generally says advantage to servers. With no wind or sun to disturb them, the best gunners on the circuit are theoretically favored. But the tournaments in Metz, Astana or even the Laver Cup at the O2 Arena in London have also shown that it is possible to slow down playing conditions to the extreme and reverse the dynamic. What will happen in Turin?

If the surface should resemble that of Vienna or the Rolex Paris Masters (which has admittedly been slightly accelerated), another factor must be taken into account at the Pala Alpitour, the largest venue in Italy. “The conditions are different from Bercy. The ball flies more due to altitude. It’s quite fast, you have to serve well“, recalled Novak Djokovic during his post-final press conference at Bercy. To be checked on Sunday when the Masters kicks off.