Jul 15, 2023, 6:00am ET
What have we seen of Oklahoma City Thunder big man Chet Holmgren during his first action since last summer?
Holmgren, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 draft, missed his entire first NBA season after suffering a Lisfranc injury in August while participating in the Crawsover Pro-Am. After 10 months of rehab, Holmgren returned to the court to play two games in the Salt Lake City summer league and two more so far in the NBA 2K24 Summer League in Las Vegas.
During that span, Holmgren has averaged nearly a double-double (19.8 points and 9.8 rebounds) with 3.7 blocks per game. We’ve seen a bit of rust on his 3-point shooting (1-of-11), plus 15 turnovers in the games he’s played.
Outside of an unshaven beard, what else has changed since we saw Holmgren on the court a year ago? Let’s take a look at how Holmgren has performed and what it means for an Oklahoma City team adding him to a rising group that went 40-42 last season in his absence.
put the ball on the ground
Chet Holmgren has shown promise in his return from injury last year. The 21-year-old center will get his first taste of NBA action this year with the Oklahoma City Thunder. Candice Ward/Getty Images
Like this year’s No. 1 pick Victor Wembanyama, whom he faced in the 2021 FIBA U19 Championship game, Holmgren sets himself apart from other centers with his ball-handling ability.
Over the course of the summer, Holmgren found success getting from behind the 3-point line to the rim off the dribble, something few centers are comfortable doing. Against the host Utah Jazz in Salt Lake City, he faked defender Micah Potter from behind the arc and drove to the basket before finishing with a soft left-handed layup.
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I also liked a play where Holmgren caught the ball on the left wing above the 3-point line against the Dallas Mavericks in Las Vegas and pulled off a dribble on the fake pass. Holmgren got into the paint and shot off-balance against the defense.
The key for Holmgren is avoiding crowds of defenders who can take advantage of how high his dribble needs to be off the ground. He’s been stripped multiple times this summer and it’s something he pointed out to reporters in Salt Lake City as an area for improvement.
“I have to acknowledge that before and understand it to adjust,” Holmgren said, “Play action on the opposite side, just do something other than drive through two people.”
retrieve your shot
For Holmgren to maximize his ability to drive against hard closing defenses, he must keep defenders on the lookout for his shot. That was the biggest negative factor from Holmgren’s first summer to his second. After making four 3-pointers in his first game of 2022 in Salt Lake City, he finished with eight in five games. Holmgren has only one 3-pointer this summer.
I’ve often found that accuracy on long range shots is the last thing to come back for players who miss an extended period of time due to injury. Holmgren acknowledged that getting the shot back from him was the biggest challenge.
“You can’t really replace the pace of the game without playing,” Holmgren said after his first game this summer. “It’s something I’m still getting used to, but I feel like it’s moving on.”
In particular, I’d like to see Holmgren focus on getting his shooting base back to where it was a year ago. Watching him shoot from beyond the arc makes him feel less balanced and leans more toward the basket instead of going straight up.
Fortunately, the Thunder have one of the most renowned shooting masters in the league in former San Antonio Spurs assistant coach Chip Engelland, who should help Holmgren improve. Holmgren will have the rest of the summer in the gym to work on getting back to where he was with his shooting coming out of Gonzaga, where he shot 39% from the (shortest) 3-point line in the NCAA.
The combination of shooting and passing should allow Holmgren to play power forward on occasion in Oklahoma City, but it will make the Thunder’s offense especially dangerous when there are five with him at center. That’s a role Aleksej Pokusevski and Eugene Omoruyi filled last season, but Holmgren offers a dramatic defensive upgrade over those players.
Work harder under the dash
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Chet Holmgren blocks even three pointers
Thunder big man Chet Holmgren blocks David Roddy’s 3-point attempt and dominates the defense.
The biggest area of statistical improvement for Holmgren since last summer was in the paint. He posted a pair of double-doubles in four games and came within a rebound in the other two, averaging precisely 9.8 RPG, up from the 8.4 he averaged in summer league a year ago.
Holmgren could have benefited from playing Oklahoma City 2022 second-round pick Jaylin Williams on occasion. Williams started 36 games as a rookie in Holmgren’s absence. Among players who saw at least 500 minutes last season, only two (Isaiah Hartenstein and Larry Nance Jr.) surpassed Williams’ 2.8 defensive boxouts per 36 minutes according to NBA Advanced Stats tracking.
Other than that, while Holmgren remains one of the thinnest players in the league, he’s evidently added strength over the past year. That helped him maintain an inside rebounding position against bigger opponents like the Memphis Grizzlies’ Kenneth Lofton Jr. and Dallas lottery pick Dereck Lively II.
Holmgren’s ability to control the glass will be particularly important for the Thunder. Oklahoma City ranked 29th in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage last season while frequently playing four-guard/guard lineups with Lu Dort and near-Rookie of the Year Jalen Williams as the nominal forwards. Rebounding was by far the biggest weakness in what was an overall average defense.
No matter how long Holmgren has been out, there’s never any question about his ability to improve Oklahoma City’s rim protection. He has blocked 14 shots in four games, slightly bettering last summer’s average of 2.8 blocks per game. If Holmgren can also help the Thunder rebound better, this has a chance to be a top-10 defense with the potential to grow in that range on offense as well.
On Wednesday, Caesars Sportsbook published the opening win total plus/minus for the 2023-24 season. With Holmgren’s return, Oklahoma City’s line started with 43.5 wins, tied for sixth in the Western Conference with the Los Angeles Lakers, who reached the conference finals a year ago.
Modest moves this offseason to move up in the NBA draft to select Kentucky guard Cason Wallace and to add second-round picks indicate the Thunder are still slowly building themselves around a young core that also includes the pick. First-team All-NBA member Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Nonetheless, a healthy Holmgren will make Oklahoma City a favorite to return to the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
2023-07-15 00:19:50
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