Vaughn Dalzell takes his hot streak into Thursday Night Football between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos.
Broncos at Chiefs (-10.5): O/U 47.5
The Chiefs have won 15 straight games against the Broncos dating back to 2015 and Kansas City is laying -10.5 as a home favorite.
The total has dropped from 50.5 down to 47.5 as the wind is expected to play a factor. For the first time all season, the NFL will have wind of 20-plus MPH in a game and it happens to be on a short week and two divisional opponents.
Since 2020, the Chiefs have won by 27, 6, 13, 4, 6, and 3 points, so the past three matchups have been closer than expected. On the other hand, the Broncos are 0-4-1 ATS this season, so backing them on the spread has not been profitable whatsoever.
Denver has gotten out to quick starts this season, ranking second in the NFL with 8.3 points per game in the first quarter, which was mind-blowing to me. However, regression will hit and this is a good time for that to happen.
Kansas City held Denver scoreless in the first quarter of both matchups last season and one of two in 2022. Since 2019, when these two meet in Kansas City, Denver has scored 0, 3, 0, and 0 points in the first quarter over four trips to Arrowhead.
Denver has scored in every first quarter this season against Las Vegas, Washington, Miami, Chicago, and the New York Jets. Only Las Vegas was a divisional opponent, and Denver scored with 44 seconds remaining in the first quarter of that Week 1 matchup.
Without a 100-percent healthy Javonte Williams, a subpar backfield, 20-plus MPH wind, and an offensive line that is overmatched, I think Denver is held scoreless in the first quarter once again.
Most books have “No” for both teams to score in the first quarter listed between -175 and -225 odds with Denver to score a touchdown listed at -250 odds or longer to “No”.
I played the Broncos 1Q Team Total Under 2.5 at +105 odds. We cannot have a field goal, so lock in and get sweaty for the first 15 minutes with me. This is -110 or worse outside of DraftKings.
Pick: Broncos 1Q Team Total Under 2.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 24-13-1 (64.8%) +9.66 units
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2023-10-11 23:47:02
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