Multiple ContributorsNov 13, 2023, 06:25 AM ET11 Minute Read
Week 11 of the 2023 college football season saw a pair of top-10 matchups, with Georgia blowing out Ole Miss and Michigan getting a statement win over Penn State. But UCF also upset Oklahoma State, Texas Tech surprised Kansas, Missouri took down Tennessee and North Carolina outlasted Duke in two overtimes. Through all of Saturday’s action, how did the top draft prospects look?
NFL draft analysts Mel Kiper Jr., Matt Miller and Jordan Reid answered big draft-related questions coming out of the weekend’s slate, including which prospects are higher or lower on their personal boards than consensus. Miller also picked out prospects rising after Saturday, Reid identified players currently flying under the radar who could get a draft stock boost with more high-level play, and Kiper turned the page to Week 12 with a few things to watch for next weekend. Finally, our analysts emptied their notebooks with everything they saw and heard over this past weekend.
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Higher than consensus | Lower than consensus
Risers | Under the radar | Week 12 lookahead | Buzz
Which prospect are you higher on than the early consensus among draft analysts?
Miller: Patrick Paul, OT, Houston. The 6-foot-7, 315-pound junior left tackle has been fantastic, allowing one sack and blowing one run block all season. Paul is a fun watch on film, too, showcasing excellent foot quickness and overall balance to slide with speed rushers. As good as he is in pass pro, Paul is an even better run-blocker thanks to his mobility in space. He’s the No. 22 overall player on my board right now and has a great opportunity to rise in the pre-draft process.
Reid: Adonai Mitchell, WR, Texas. Over 10 games this season, 85% of Mitchell’s 40 catches have gone for a first down or a touchdown, and he helped that number with his ninth TD catch on Saturday against TCU. Despite being a taller target at 6-foot-4 and 195 pounds, he has outstanding flexibility as a route runner, easy speed to threaten defenses vertically and the ability to make catches outside his frame. After struggling with injuries at Georgia, Mitchell has turned into a dangerous pass-catcher for the Longhorns and has an intriguing profile for teams seeking perimeter help. I have him at No. 31 overall and WR5, and you shouldn’t be surprised if he ultimately ends up in Round 1.
Kiper: Troy Fautanu, OL, Washington. Because everyone has caught up on Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders being a likely top-10 pick — whenever he enters the NFL — is it boring if I go with an offensive lineman here? Because I’m a huge fan of Fautanu, who plays left tackle for the Huskies but might end up at guard at the NFL level. And he has All-Pro talent on the interior. Fautanu (6-foot-4, 317 pounds) is tough and aggressive, and he has the feet needed to move in pass protection. He gets to the second level with ease. I have him as my No. 14 prospect in this class, and he should be an instant starter when he gets to the league.
Which prospect are you lower on than the early consensus among draft analysts?
Kiper: Jared Verse, DE, Florida State. He has all the tools to be a top-10 pick and the best edge rusher in this class, but I just don’t see him producing consistently. When I turn on the tape, Verse disappears at times. After he put up nine sacks in his first season at Florida State in 2022, he has 4.5 this season, four of which came across two games. His 13% pressure rate ranks 30th in the FBS, but it’s down from 17.1% last season. At 6-foot-4, 260 pounds, Verse obviously is super talented, but I have him as my No. 3 defensive end and No. 25 on my Big Board. I wouldn’t draft him in the top 10.
Reid: Leonard Taylor III, DT, Miami. While Taylor’s flash plays (six tackles for loss) make you sit up in your seat, they are way too sporadic. His motor runs hot and cold, and his cold stretches can last long periods of time. I saw Taylor (6-foot-3, 305 pounds) up close against North Carolina in mid-October, and the junior interior defender has exceptional burst and quickness off the ball. But consistency remains a big issue for him. He hasn’t lived up to the first-round hype he had entering the season, and he’s not currently in my top 50.
Miller: Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State. I like Robinson’s game; I just don’t see a first-rounder when I watch the tape. Even before he missed two games following a hit to the helmet, I had questions about his ability to generate the burst and power needed to succeed against NFL offensive tackles. Robinson is undersized at 6-foot-3 and 250 pounds, and he doesn’t have great suddenness in his lower body. When I watch Robinson, I see more of a situational pass-rusher — unless he lands somewhere like Philadelphia where the Eagles have a model for smaller edge players.
Miller’s draft risers from Week 11
Terrion Arnold, CB, Alabama
We spent an entire summer thinking an Alabama cornerback would be the class’ CB1. But instead of Kool-Aid McKinstry, who entered the season at the top of the position rankings, I’m starting to think it might be the guy opposite him on Alabama’s defense. Arnold is a 6-foot, 196-pound redshirt sophomore with excellent length, toughness and quick feet. He mirrors and matches well at the line of scrimmage and can carry receivers down the field. With three interceptions and nine pass breakups on the season, Arnold has the stats to match his traits. He’s a new addition to my board in the past few weeks, but I’m already confident enough to put a CB1 grade on him.
Cody Schrader, RB, Missouri
A transfer from Truman State, Schrader carried the Missouri offense with 205 rushing yards and one touchdown Saturday against Tennessee, while also contributing a team-leading five catches for 116 yards. The 5-foot-9, 214-pounder has been fantastic this season and leads the SEC in rushing with 1,124 yards. He’s a Day 3 draft prospect but is rising up the board.
No. 14 Missouri’s Schrader shreds No. 13 Vols’ defense
Cody Schrader, the SEC’s leading rusher, rumbles for 205 rushing yards and a team-high 116 receiving yards to lead the Tigers to a 36-7 victory over the Volunteers. (edited)
Ennis Rakestraw Jr., CB, Missouri
Let’s stick with the Tigers for another riser. NFL scouts are talking about a Round 1 grade for Rakestraw, and I see it. The 6-foot, 188-pound junior has been avoided by opposing quarterbacks because of his movement ability and timing in coverage, and scouts rave about his burst and instincts despite just one career interception.
Reid’s draft sleepers to keep an eye on
Jarrian Jones, CB, Florida State
Jones has been a catalyst in the Seminoles’ secondary, and while he primarily plays in the slot, we saw his versatile skill set against Miami. The Mississippi State transfer has high-level instincts in coverage and physicality as a tackler. And as we saw when he sealed the game with a crucial interception, Jones has good ball skills. At 6-foot, 190 pounds, Jones is capable of playing in the slot or outside in the NFL, which will make him an attractive target for teams early on Day 3.
Tyler Warren, TE, Penn State
Penn State’s offense has struggled with consistency in big games, but Warren has stood out, catching six touchdowns this season. At 6-foot-6 and 257 pounds, he’s a reliable security blanket against man coverage and in the red zone, and he regularly showcases his versatility. And in an underwhelming tight end class behind Georgia’s Brock Bowers and Texas’ Ja’Tavion Sanders, Warren could be a late-Day 2 or early-Day 3 target.
Jahdae Barron, CB, Texas
A consistent wrap-and-finish tackler, Barron has been one of the most consistent nickel corners in the class. In coverage, he is allowing just 29.4% completions as the primary defender, the 10th-best mark in the FBS. Barron (5-foot-11, 192 pounds) entered the season as a mid-Day 3 prospect but has risen into the third- or at least fourth-round discussion.
Kiper’s three things to watch in Week 12
Arizona left tackle Jordan Morgan, who tore the ACL in his right knee last November, has had a phenomenal season, but he’ll get a big test next Saturday. That’s because Utah pass-rusher Jonah Elliss will come to town. Elliss, my fifth-ranked outside linebacker, ranks third in the FBS with 12 sacks, and he can beat linemen in a variety of ways. Morgan could be a Round 1 pick next April, but scouts will be watching to see how he holds up in both the pass and run game against Elliss & Co.
Another week, another chance for Texas wideouts Xavier Worthy and Adonai Mitchell to star. They combined for 13 catches for 198 yards and a touchdown in the win over TCU on Saturday. In the Longhorns’ next matchup, though, I have my eye on Iowa State defensive back T.J. Tampa, my eighth-ranked corner in this class. He has allowed just 4.3 yards per catch as the nearest defender in coverage this season. If the Cyclones have any shot at the home upset, it’ll be because Tampa locks down one side of the field.
I recently moved Clemson cornerback Nate Wiggins, who has been a star this season, into my top 25, and he has a chance to rise even higher. I wouldn’t be shocked if he was the top cornerback off the board. He’ll now be asked to slow down North Carolina wideout Devontez Walker, who is coming off a seven-catch, 162-yard game in the win over Duke. Both are physical and big (over 6-foot-2) players with upside. I can’t wait to watch this one.
Let’s empty the notebooks …
Miller:
• Will Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders leave college early for the 2024 draft? His coach and father Deion suggested last week that his QB will wait until 2025 to enter the draft. Sanders, who was my QB2 and a top-five player in this class, has been widely expected to stay at Colorado, where his father is rebuilding the program. If Sanders does stick around for one more season, it’s fair to say that barring a surprise — like Caleb Williams returning to USC — Sanders would start the 2025 process as QB1.
• If he declares for the draft, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy is a junior I could see benefitting from the new NFL rule allowing underclassmen to participate in all-star games. The conservative nature of the Wolverines’ offense means McCarthy doesn’t get many opportunities to air it out or get into a rhythm. It’s a run-first and run-second offense, with McCarthy often operating on play-action rollouts that cut the field in half. Evaluators will want to see McCarthy work outside that framework.
The potential first-rounder could really cement his stock in Frisco (Shrine Game) or Mobile (Senior Bowl) this January. McCarthy is my QB3 currently (with Shedeur Sanders falling with increased traction that he’ll be back at Colorado), and while it’s unlikely he would jump USC’s Caleb Williams or North Carolina’s Drake Maye, he can improve his individual standing as a potential top-10 pick during the pre-draft process.
• Caleb Williams is amazing, but we have to talk about the fumbles. He dropped his 32nd career fumble on Saturday against Oregon, and it’s impossible to make excuses for poor ball security in the pocket. Williams is a mesmerizing prospect with an awesome arm, great mobility and an innate ability to create plays on the move. But he has to clean up his ball security and prove to evaluators that he’ll be able to play within structure — and not try to make every play a highlight reel of him scrambling before throwing across his body. Williams’ greatest strength is his improv ability, but it’s also his greatest crutch.
Caleb Williams keeps USC alive with TD pass on 4th down
USC converts on fourth down as Caleb Williams slings a touchdown pass to Brenden Rice to pull the Trojans within two scores.
Reid:
• The running back class lacks a true RB1 candidate, but Michigan’s Blake Corum is making a strong case after 26 carries for 145 yards and two touchdowns against Penn State. The rushing attack carried the Wolverines — they didn’t record a single passing attempt in the second half — and Corum’s tough running style and tackle-breaking ability were both on full display. He’s up to 794 rushing yards and 18 TDs on the season, and will likely be a popular draft target in the middle of Day 2.
2023-11-13 11:25:00
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