Major League Baseball is the most important baseball league in the world. MLB is perfect for lovers of statistics applied to betting, and here we give you some advice to start understanding the dynamics of betting on this sport and to start winning. MLB Baseball Betting Strategies: the basics for betting on Major League Baseball
Types of plays Baseball MLB
- Moneyline: head-to-head betting (who wins the match). Two results
- Runline: handicap bets (+/- 1.5 baseline runs).
- Over/Under Total Runs: the total points (runs) scored in the match.
- F5: The three bets mentioned above can also be applied to the First 5 Innings, the so-called F5 bets (First Five Innings).
- Prop Bet: Player performance.
Strategy Scommesse Baseball MLB
The most important role in Baseball
Pitcher: the starting pitcher is the first role to analyze in betting on baseball americano. The teams each time indicate which pitcher they will start with and this gives us a small advantage in analysis. A starter on average plays 4 to 6 innings (but it can last even less if he pitches badly, as it can last longer, until the complete game, i.e. he plays the whole game, a rare but possible condition).
Pitchers can be right-handed or left-handed, and in that case we need to see how the opposing attacks behave against right-handed or left-handed pitchers. The field factor can also be important. Once the starter has been changed, the so-called relievers enter, i.e. the bullpen that completes the game.
Obviously predicting which reliever he will pitch is not simple and we usually rely on overall numbers of the entire bullpen, therefore less accurate than those of the individual starters which we can analyze in more detail, for these many prefer to bet in F5 avoiding the endgame with bullpen.
Likewise that’s why the importance of a starting pitcher is such that it applies to 50% of the playdespite baseball being a team sport with many protagonists and roles.
Baseball MLB Phillies stadio
MLB Baseball Betting Strategies: Key Stats
Defence:
ERA: the average runs conceded by pitchers. An acceptable ERA is 3.00, the higher this number, the worse the pitcher in question is pitching.
OBA: the batting average that the pitcher allows to opposing hitters.
Other statistics: WHIP, FIP, OPS wRC+ there are other important indicators that we will analyze in more detail in another article, and there are also all the expected (xERA-xOBA, xwRC+) which are the expected statistics that can be different from the real ones, and which represent a prediction if a pitcher will decrease or improve (in the long run approaching the expected value of the expected).
Attack:
RUNS: the runs a team scores on average every 9 innings.
BA: the combined batting average of all hitters in the lineup.
STRIKEOUT RATE: the strikeout rate that all batters in a lineup suffer.
Ballpark, watch out for the stadiums
Other tips: stadiums change in size and shape, and each ballpark has its own statistics that make it more “friendly” to pitchers or hitters. For example, Coors Field (Colorado) is the field where you score the most, and therefore the most difficult for pitchers, due to the altitude and the rarefaction of the air.
The weather conditions themselves (wind direction and intensity, humidity…) are very important and several sites also offer a “weather service” on these environmental factors which can change the bets a lot, especially on O/U.
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I am one of the founders of BetItaliaweb and I have always been involved in writing articles dedicated to sports betting, casinos, poker and cryptocurrencies.
2024-03-27 13:24:50
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