Shots fired at a candidate, threats, aggressive rhetoric: A conversation about a unique election campaign in the USA.
“In the USA, political violence is almost part of the culture,” says Claudia Franziska Brühwiler. Donald Trump in Virginia.
Anna Moneymaker / Getty
Ms Brühwiler, you are currently on a research stay in Madison in the US state of Wisconsin: How did you experience the assassination attempt on Trump at the weekend? What is the mood among the population?
Amazingly quiet. I found out about the assassination attempt while I was at a minor league baseball game with my sons. My husband sent me a text message. All around me I saw people checking their cell phones to find out about the assassination. But there was no commotion, not even an announcement from the public address system. The game was not interrupted. People were eating hot dogs and watching baseball.
A presidential candidate almost gets shot and people don’t let it bother them?
Yes, that’s true. But there’s little sign of the election campaign here, even though the nominating convention is taking place in Wisconsin. There are hardly any campaign posters in front yards and only the occasional T-shirt or button advertising candidates. A week ago, Joe Biden was in Madison, but that didn’t really move people either. Wisconsin is a purple state: Trump was elected in 2016, and Biden in 2020.
What effect did the attack have on you personally?
It was similar to January 6, 2021. I was shocked, but not surprised. Even during Trump’s first election campaign in 2016, many people said there could be an attack. That was always in the back of our minds.
“US election campaigns are tough, that’s nothing new”: Americanist Claudia Franziska Brühwiler.
This is not the first assassination attempt. Ronald Reagan was also the target of an attack.
Yes, political violence is almost part of the culture in the USA. It is not a new phenomenon. It was already the case in the 19th century, when a vice president even killed a former finance minister in a duel. And there were assassination attempts on presidential candidates in the 20th century. There have also been signs of a certain escalation: in recent months, Supreme Court judges have been threatened, there has been an attack on Nancy Pelosi’s husband, and there have been plans to kidnap Gretchen Whitmer, the Democratic governor of Michigan.
The election campaign is highly polarized. Some Republicans, such as J. D. Vance, are holding the Democrats partly responsible for the attack. They accuse them of having harsher tone: Trump is portrayed as the absolute evil and compared to Hitler. Are Trump’s opponents partly to blame?
American election campaigns are tough. This is nothing new. George W. Bush was portrayed by the Democrats as a threat not only to America, but to the entire world. Back in the 1960s, Lyndon B. Johnson made his opponent Barry Goldwater look bad with a defamatory commercial: It shows a girl tearing petals off a flower, then the explosion of an atomic bomb is shown, and it says: If you want a world in which all of God’s children can live well, vote for Johnson.
The “Daisy Ad” was shown on television as part of Lyndon B. Johnson’s 1964 presidential campaign. Although it was only broadcast once, it is considered an important factor in Johnson’s victory.
When did this polarization begin?
For many observers, Newt Gingrich, who was Speaker of the House of Representatives in the 1990s, was the first to do so. He ran an aggressive election campaign and finally helped the Republicans regain a majority in the House of Representatives. However, the past should not be idealized. Even during the Cold War, election rhetoric was often unpleasant. But today it is not just rhetoric; it reflects political polarization. Up until the 1970s, there was a great deal of agreement between Democrats and Republicans, and there was a large ideological overlap. That has changed since the 1980s.
Has the assassination attempt on Trump changed the mood among the population?
That’s difficult to say. There is hardly any meaningful data yet. One indicator is the betting markets. Trump’s “stocks” have skyrocketed since the assassination.
Trump reacted with great presence of mind. The image he presented was in stark contrast to Biden’s demeanor, which often seemed sloppy. Did this improve Trump’s chances?
It certainly triggered something that Trump was so determined and combative in perhaps the most difficult moment of his life. However, November is a long time away. And people’s memory span is short. In November, the images of the assassination will be less important than the everyday worries that Americans will have then: their bank balance and the supermarket bill.
According to a study, millions of Americans would approve of violence to bring Trump back into office – or to prevent him: Is the country on the brink of civil war?
Society is more polarized, yes. But civil war, no, definitely not. That is a massive exaggeration. Not least because Americans are not that interested in politics – over forty percent do not identify with either party. Most people just want a good life and to be left in peace.
Trump has repeatedly portrayed himself as the victim of a state that cheated him out of his election victory. Now he has become the victim of an assassination attempt. Does that strengthen his position?
It will be interesting to see how he talks about the assassination in the coming weeks. I can’t imagine that he wants to be seen as a victim. The clenched fist immediately after the almost fatal shot, the way he shouts “Fight, fight, fight!” with his face covered in blood – that is anything but a victim role. Trump will portray himself as the man who rises above the victim role.
Since the assassination, some of Trump’s supporters have elevated him to an almost messianic status: they attribute his survival to the work of God, who chose him to save the nation. Is this serious?
This tone seems strange to us Europeans. But a certain religious charge in political life is part of America’s political culture, the so-called civil religion. This goes back a long way in history. There are depictions of George Washington that show his deification. There are pictures in which Abraham Lincoln is received by George Washington in heaven after his death. The assassination of John F. Kennedy was paralleled by many with the assassination of Lincoln and interpreted as an almost religious “elevation”.
Claudia Franziska Brühwiler: “The differences in the population cannot be easily bridged. The divides are too deep for that.”
Callaghan O’hare / Reuters
Biden is now clearly focused on his role as president who appeals for national unity. Will this hinder him in the election campaign?
I don’t think so, on the contrary: through his level-headed behavior in this extraordinary situation, he can show that he is still here, that he still has the qualities that people value in him as president. He has shown that he is moved by the fate of his political opponent, of whom he does not think much, and he found the right words in the situation.
Biden and Trump called on Americans to be united on Sunday. Could the attack be a wake-up call for America to bridge the divide between the parties?
The storming of the Capitol on January 6, 2021 could have been a wake-up call. In 1963, people thought the assassination of Kennedy was a wake-up call, and then a terrible election campaign between Johnson and Goldwater followed. The Trump assassination may be a salutary shock for the moment. But the differences in the population cannot be bridged so easily. The divides are too deep for that.
Trump is said to have instructed speakers at the party convention in Milwaukee to refrain from blaming Biden. Will the election campaign become more objective in the wake of the shock of the assassination?
Trump can use different registers. That is one of his strengths. As president, he has had moments in which he has shown himself to be statesmanlike. For example, in 2018 after the Parkland shooting. He appeared very empathetic and suddenly advocated tightening gun laws. But Trump often acts on instinct: now he seems to have sensed that he does not need to make too loud a statement at this party convention. He has been very reserved in recent weeks and during the televised debate. At the moment, the motto of both parties is “Take the temperature down”. But that can change at any moment.
The 2024 American election campaign will be remembered. Not least because two old men are facing each other, who have become inevitable for their own party, but also a burden. Why are the parties having such a hard time with the generational change?
On the one hand, it is the system. It delivers candidates to the parties, even if the parties may not want them, as long as they achieve a relative majority. This is obvious with Trump. In 2016, the Republicans did not want him; they were hoping for a seasoned candidate. But because the primary campaign was democratized, Trump came out on top. And this time, too, he came out on top because he has a solid base, even though it is not a majority and not even half of the party. That is the mechanics of the system. In addition, if a former president wants to run again, no one will challenge him unless he wants to harm the party.
So the problem could be solved by reforming the procedure?
In part, yes. But the persistence is also due to the behavior of voters. Trump and Biden represent the generation that has shaped American politics for decades. Voters reward incumbents. And those with experience have easier access to the immense financial resources needed to run an election campaign.
So nothing will change anytime soon?
Hardly the system, but the 2024 elections will look different, that much is clear. With J.D. Vance, Trump has nominated a very young vice presidential candidate. In doing so, he recognizes that a generational change must take place. Moreover, Vance is not a classic choice for a vice president. Usually, a candidate chooses a vice presidential candidate who taps into a wider segment of the vote. Vance does not do that, Trump assumes that he does not need to.
The election will take place in just over three months: what is your prediction?
I no longer dare to make any predictions. Especially not in a year in which we have seen an assassination attempt on a candidate. There have hardly ever been as many uncertainties as this time. We cannot even say with certainty whether Biden will stick with his candidacy and who Trump’s opponent will be.
2024-07-18 15:05:58
#Americanist #Claudia #Franziska #Brühwiler #election #campaign
