Formula 1: Red Bull facing the worst case scenario?

Formula 1: Red Bull facing the worst case scenario?

At the next Formula 1 Grand Prix in Austin it should become clear what will happen next for Red Bull. A title failure could have serious consequences. In any case, Max Verstappen sends unmistakable signals – even any cheap PR campaign won’t help.

All’s well that ends well? Or will the big bang still come at Red Bull? One thing is clear: after the race triple in Austin/Texas this weekend (Sunday, 9 p.m., in the WELT sports ticker), a week later in Mexico City and on November 3rd in São Paulo, the Formula 1 world will be one be a little smarter. Max Verstappen can theoretically complete his fourth triumph in a row on November 3rd in Brazil, where so many world championships have already been decided. The now 27-year-old Dutchman would draw level with his Red Bull predecessor Sebastian Vettel in terms of titles and climb into the top five of the most successful drivers in the history of the premier motorsport class.

But what happens if the upgrades to the company car, which has been ailing for months, don’t bring Verstappen back to winning ways? What happens to the 61-time Grand Prix winner, who was last able to celebrate as winner on June 23rd in Spain, if Red Bull doesn’t get it done and in the end challenger Lando Norris can celebrate his debut title in the powerful McLaren ?

“It would of course be emotional if you had such a lead and then lost at the back,” says former Formula 1 driver Timo Glock and comes to the conclusion: “An unhappy Max Verstappen would be the worst case scenario for us Red Bull, then he would certainly look around for the future.”

The wonderful PR world of Red Bull – and the reality

Maybe that’s why Red Bull Racing’s social media department is trying so hard to convey harmony and team spirit before the Weeks of Truth. There is a photo series of Verstappen with his permanently troubled Mexican stablemate Sergio Pérez, simply called the “Chestappens”. Or singer Ed Sheeran with Verstappen or team boss Christian Horner. Or Verstappen at American football training or Verstappen and Pérez again, whizzing around “in perfect harmony” on sleighs with wheels and a steering wheel.

This is the wonderful world of PR. The reality at Red Bull looks like this: star designer Adrian Newey will move to Aston Martin, sports director Jonathan Wheatley will leave and in 2026 he will become team boss of the designated Audi racing team. And they are not the only departures: five key figures have left the team since 2021. In addition, at the beginning of this year there was a dispute involving team boss Horner over allegedly inappropriate behavior towards an employee. The team hardly ever calmed down this season.

When, after seven Verstappen victories in the first third of the season, things went downhill in terms of sport, the situation worsened. At least the organizers in Austin are happy, reporting increasing ticket sales again since the end of their dominance.

“Austin as the last chance in the title fight?” was already asked by the specialist magazine “Auto, Motor und Sport”. A total of six Grand Prix weekends are still outstanding, and there are also three sprint decisions. So there are plenty of points that pursuer Norris can get. In Austin there are a maximum of 34.

Norris’ current deficit: 52 points. “The next three races are definitely decisive in which direction the World Cup will go, especially for Max Verstappen,” predicted Glock: “But they will also be a bit decisive for the future.”

Verstappen has an exit clause

They know that only too well at Red Bull. “When he’s in the car, he wants to win. But the environment has to be right,” motorsports consultant Helmut Marko has reiterated several times. “If he doesn’t like the whole thing anymore, you can expect him to say from one day to the next: That’s it!” The farce about a penalty for rude wording couldn’t brighten Verstappen’s mood either.

Verstappen’s contract with Red Bull is valid until 2028. But that doesn’t have to mean anything (at all). “Most top drivers have exit clauses that are performance-related. Max has something like that too,” said Marko in an interview on RTL. Verstappen wants to drive where he has the best chance of success. They also know this at Mercedes.

After two years of weakness, the Silver Arrow is on the mend again and is definitely capable of winning. The fact that youngster Kimi Antonelli is clear as the successor to record world champion Lewis Hamilton alongside George Russell for the coming season doesn’t mean much. By 2026 at the latest, Toto Wolff is likely to increase his advances again after the repeated flirtations with Verstappen this year.

After his four titles with Red Bull in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013, Vettel drove for the team for another year, which was rather bad. It was one of the few seasons in which the Heppenheim native did not win a race; Vettel was trailing his teammate at the time, Daniel Ricciardo (three wins). The farewell from the Red Bull bosses was not overly warm when the German signed on at Ferrari.

A year and a half later, Verstappen – like Vettel once – was promoted from the then Toro Rosso team to Red Bull. It is no coincidence that the bosses at Toro Rosso’s successor Racing Bulls are currently replacing Ricciardo with possible new hopeful Liam Lawson this season. The 22-year-old from New Zealand and Yuki Tsunoda, who is two years older, should show who is the faster of the two with the chance of possibly driving in the Red Bull in 2025. For now, definitely in place of Pérez. But who knows what will happen in the coming weeks.

dpa/pk

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