BerlinBrussels and Chisinau have denounced Russian interference to interfere in the result of this Sunday’s pro-European referendum and in the presidential elections of Moldova. Moscow continues to be seen as a threat to the European future of this former Soviet republic neighboring Ukraine. “Russia will undoubtedly continue the destabilization campaigns because the PAS government (the Party of Action and Solidarity, of the outgoing president Maia Sandu) will try to follow its path towards European accession. Russia has other plans for Moldova. It is clear that he wants to reintegrate it into his sphere of influence”, Nadja Douglas, a political scientist at the Berlin-based Center for International and Eastern European Studies (ZOiS), explains by phone.
Chisinau has set itself the goal of entering the community club in 2030, but the narrow victory of Yes in the referendum reflects well the deep division of the country into pro-Russians and pro-Europeans. 50.46% of Moldovans who voted in the referendum marked the yes box to amend the Constitution to include accession to the European Union as a national goal, while 49.54% voted no. The difference was only 13,600 votes. Although for hours it seemed that he would not prevail in the popular consultation, finally the vote of the Moldovans abroad has tipped the scales on the European side.
“The people of Moldova have spoken: our future in the European Union will now be anchored in the Constitution. We have fought cleanly in an unfair combat, and we have won. But the fight is not over. We will continue to fight for peace, prosperity and the freedom to build our own future”, reacted Sandu, who is running for re-election after four years in power.
When the no was winning, the president denounced that there had been electoral fraud. “Criminal groups, associated with foreign forces, have attacked our country with lies and propaganda” and the buying of votes with “the aim of undermining a democratic exercise, instilling fear and panic in society”, he said.
“In the face of Russia’s hybrid tactics, Moldova has shown its independence, it is strong and it wants a European future”, said the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, on Monday.
The race is not over
“At the moment, there is no real winner,” says Douglas. “I think the country is a little shocked. Everyone needs time to deal with these results and there is tension because everyone knows that the race is not over”, explains the ZOiS political scientist.
The result of the popular consultation will undoubtedly shake up the campaign for the second round of the presidential elections next November 3. Sandu won the first round with 42.45% of the vote, while former Attorney General Alexandre Stoianogio, considered the Kremlin’s candidate, received 25.98% of support. In third place, there is the oligarch Renato Usatyi, with 13.79% of votes.
Sandu has asked voters from other parties to vote for her in the second round. “Our European vision must become a shield against aggression,” defended the pro-European candidate. Stoianogio, for his part, has been convinced that he has a great chance of winning on November 3.
Moldova applied to join the European Union in March 2022, a month after the start of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine. In December 2023, Brussels opened accession negotiations with the country, which gained independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
Regions prorusses
It remains to be seen whether the election results and Russian interference will exacerbate tensions between pro-Western leaders and the region of Transnistria, which is ruled by pro-Russian separatists and where 2,000 Russian troops are currently stationed.
There are also strong tensions between Chisinau and the pro-Russian autonomous region of Gagauzia. “Its governor, elected last year, is totally against joining the EU. And he announced that they would try to separate from the rest of the country in the event of accession. At the moment it is more of a symbolic threat, but it is not entirely ruled out that separatist tendencies will gain weight”, warns Douglas.
