F1 fans can thank Norris and McLaren for “reviving” this season. Even after the Spanish GP, which took place in June, it seemed that Verstappen would leave with a cigar in his teeth and his favorite gin and tonic in his right hand towards his 4th title.
However, McLaren’s sharp improvements and Red Bull’s technical woes brought real intrigue back into this title race.
The situation in numbers
With five races to go, the two main title contenders are separated by 57 points. “Ferrari” fans will say that with a deficit of 79 points, Charles Leclair is still a contender, but his arrival at the “throne” would already be a scene from a science fiction movie.
A maximum of 147 points can be won in the remaining season (125 for “Grand Prix” victories, six for fastest laps and 16 for victories in sprint races). The deficit of 57 points is 38% percent of the points still available this season.
A total of 24 stages will be played this season, which means that there are still about 20% of stages left for drivers and teams.
So, Lando’s task in numbers is this: win almost 40% of the available points in only 20% of the season. The climb up the “hill” for a British pilot is undeniably steep.
From a statistical point of view, with a fifth of the season remaining, no champion in F1’s 74-year-old history has faced such an impressive deficit.
Among the examples when the eventual champion at the 80% mark of the season was behind the leader by a significant number of points can be mentioned in 1973, when Emerson Fittipaldi was nine points behind Clay Regaconi, which was 30% of the available points at the time.
Also worth noting is 2010, when Sebastian Vettel trailed teammate Mark Webber by 21 points, which at the time was 21% of the points available for the remainder of the season.
Even Kimi Raikkonen’s famous 2007 was not in such “oats” at the mark of 80% stages of the season, however, two races before the end of the season he needed 17 points. At that time, only 10 points were given for the victory.
Lando’s situation at the moment is that winning and fastest lap in every Grand Prix and sprint stage, with Verstappen finishing second, will no longer be enough. In such a scenario, Verstappen would end the season with 460 points and Norris with 443.
Norris needs (at least one) Verstappen mistake to cost the Dutchman a podium (or retirement) and also interference from other teams in the title race. First on the first of the two aspects.
Lando and Max’s mistakes
In the aforementioned 2007, Raikkonen’s title was brought by Lewis Hamilton’s mistakes, mainly a mishap in the Chinese Grand Prix pit stop lane. Hamilton was a rookie that year, but Verstappen is now a three-time world champion with almost 10 seasons of experience.
Therefore, it would be quite naive to hope for Verstappen’s mistake. This season, Verstappen did not push the maximum out of his car once. It is about the Grand Prix of Azerbaijan, where he would have conceded to his teammate Sergio Perez if the Mexican and Carlos Sainz had split the second corner on the last lap.
Yes, a relatively poor performance by Red Bull standards was also experienced in Belgium, but at this stage the team missed the specification of the car for Sunday’s race, opting for a higher downforce.
Verstappen has rarely made mistakes over the last four years, which is not the case for his main rival in this title race.
Norris has gained a reputation this season as not being the best driver in the first laps of the race. Until Azerbaijan, he had not been able to advance even one position in the first lap of any “Grand Prix”.
At the recent US Grand Prix, Norris did not cover the inside at the start, allowing Verstappen to push himself off the track and lose position. Norris himself said after the race: “If I had defended better in the first corner and not driven like a fool, I would have been in the lead and we wouldn’t have needed this conversation at all.”
This season, after almost every race, either Norris or McLaren take responsibility for something “wrong”. For example, at Silverstone, when Red Bull’s dominance was already beginning to fade, the team’s wrong choice of tires at the end of the race may have cost Norris the victory.
With such mistakes in the performance of the pilot and the team, it is simply impossible to fight for victory in the drivers’ overall standings. Especially when you have a team and a pilot in front of you, who push the maximum in almost every situation.
Black horse (on a yellow background)
Here we come to a team that can shake up the drivers’ title race. It is, of course, about “Ferrari”.
As already mentioned, the scenario in which Verstappen finishes immediately behind him in every race does not suit Norris, first of all. Second, Frederik Wasser’s men in red overalls proved in Austin that they are the team to be reckoned with the most right now.
If one or even both Ferrari drivers finish ahead of Norris and Verstappen, as was the case in Austin, the winner is of course the Dutch driver. After all, only three points separate third and fourth or second and third place.
The other McLaren pilot Oskars Piastri can also intervene, but you can’t always rely on him either. In Singapore, for example, Norris was unstoppable, winning the race by almost 21 seconds. Piastri, on the other hand, had an unsuccessful qualification, winning only the 5th starting position. Nevertheless, it seemed inevitable that the Australian would catch up and “bite” the second-placed Verstappen after pit stops with nine laps of newer tires.
After overtaking the two Mercedes pilots, Piastri allegedly started chasing Verstappen, but very quickly “dropped” from it.
Norris needs a flawless performance by himself and his team to win the title, as well as an almost equally flawless performance from Piastri. On the other hand, “Ferrari” looked like a team that could give Lando a helping hand by squeezing between him and Verstappen until a few races ago. At the moment, “Ferrari” could cause more pain to the British pilot.
Important Mexico and the “tomb” of the Constructors’ Cup
Ahead is the specific Mexican “GP” with rarefied air, as the “Autódromo Hermanos Rodríguez” is located at 2,240 meters above sea level.
Consequently, the main overtaking weapon of the formulas, or the DRS system, is also less effective. Yes, there is a very long start/finish straight in Mexico, but a quality exit from the last corner in combination with good battery management and a less efficient rival’s DRS allows even nominally weaker teams to protect their place. Let’s remember last year, when Daniel Ricciardo was able to keep nominally faster cars behind him for long laps, finishing in 7th position.
Therefore, two factors will be important – qualification and start. If Norriss keeps his level in the qualification, then, as already mentioned, he has some problems in the starts.
The start of the Mexican GP requires courage and skill. Here is an example of a pilot having both courage and skill:
Max Verstappen has led after Lap 1 in 5 of last 6 Mexican GPs. Yet he’s only been on pole in one of those GPs.
It’s Lap 1 🇲🇽
2023: P3 to 1st
2022: P1 to 1st
2021: P3 to 1st
2019: P4 to 8th
2018: P2 to 1st
2017: P2 to 1stHe’s had mega starts in Mexico.pic.twitter.com/w2ck3CLWFJ
— Daniel Valente 🏎️ (@F1GuyDan) October 24, 2024
Here’s an example of a pilot having courage:
If Verstappen manages to overtake Norris at the start, the British pilot may have to study his rival’s rear anti-wing throughout the race, as Mexico, as already mentioned, does not appreciate overtaking maneuvers with DRS. Despite the fact that “McLaren” is definitely faster than “Red Bull” in the racing phase, when both formulas already have emptier beacons. In addition, Mercedes engines, which are also used by McLaren, have long been no “fans” of the rarefied Mexican air.
If Norris’ chances in the fight for the world championship title, as described, do not look very promising, then the Constructors’ Cup at the end of the season promises to be full of intrigue.
At the moment, it is already clear in principle that the Constructors’ Cup will have a new owner, as “Red Bull” is currently in a downward direction, while Sergio Perez is fighting with “Haas” and “VCARB” instead of “Ferrari” and “McLaren” pilots.
The first three of the constructors’ cup:
| Place | Team | To the point |
|---|---|---|
| 1. | McLaren | 544 |
| 2. | Red Bull | 504 |
| 3. | Ferrari | 496 |
As we can see, Ferrari to McLaren has a smaller deficit than Norris to Verstappen. However, it is easier to erase the deficit in the overall standings of the Constructors’ Cup, considering that two pilots are fighting for points at the same time.
Ferrari looks like the best formula in all of F1 right now. Its biggest advantage is the ability to save tires, which was also praised by one of the Ferrari drivers, Carlos Sainz, after the US stage.
“How long we can go without changing tires has definitely been our main trump card this season. I really like that because last year we were mostly defending or losing ground. This year it looks like we can attack more without thinking about the tires,” Sainz told Jenson Button after the race.
In the said stage in the USA, “Ferrari” got 43 points with a double victory, while “McLaren”, whose pilots finished in 4th and 5th positions, added only 22 points to their account. So a 42-point lead with five races to go promises a fierce battle all the way to the checkered flag in Abu Dhabi.
Interestingly, “Ferrari” can help Verstappen in the fight for the drivers’ title, while the Dutch pilot, ahead of one of the “McLaren” drivers, helps “Ferrari” in the fight for the Constructors’ Cup.
If the season ends the way it looks now and Verstappen wins his 4th championship and Red Bull finish third overall, Christian Horner has to look in the mirror and ask himself one question: “What the hell are we going to do with the co-driver’s seat?”
F1 driver standings table
| Place | Pilots | team | victories | point |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Max Verstappen | Red Bull | 7 | 354 |
| 2. | Lando Norris | McLaren | 3 | 297 |
| 3. | Charles Leclair | Ferrari | 3 | 275 |
| 4. | Oskars Piastri | McLaren | 2 | 247 |
| 5. | Carlos Sainz | Ferrari | 1 | 215 |
| 6. | Louis Hamilton | Mercedes | 2 | 177 |
| 7. | George Russell | Mercedes | 1 | 167 |
| 8. | Sergio Peress | Red Bull | 0 | 150 |
| 9. | Fernando Alonso | Aston Martin | 0 | 62 |
| 10. | Nico Hulkenberg | Haas | 0 | 29 |
| 11. | Lance Stroll | Aston Martin | 0 | 24 |
| 12. | Juki Kunoda | VCARB | 0 | 22 |
| 13. | Alexander Albon | Williams | 0 | 12 |
| 14. | Daniel Ricciardo | VCARB | 0 | 12 |
| 15. | Kevin’s Magnussen’s | Haas | 0 | 8 |
| 16. | Pierre Gasly | Alpine | 0 | 8 |
| 17. | Oliver Burman | Haas/Ferrari | 0 | 7 |
| 18. | Franco Colapinto | Williams | 0 | 5 |
| 19. | Esteban Ocon | Alpine | 0 | 5 |
| 20. | Liam Lawson | VCARB | 0 | 2 |
| 21. | Guanju Zho | Sauber | 0 | 0 |
| 22. | Logan Sergeant | Williams | 0 | 0 |
| 23. | Valtteri Bottas | Sauber | 0 | 0 |
Constructors Cup Table
| Place | Team | Victory | To the point |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | McLaren | 4 | 544 |
| 2. | Red Bull | 7 | 504 |
| 3. | Ferrari | 4 | 496 |
| 4. | Mercedes | 3 | 344 |
| 5. | Aston Martin | 0 | 86 |
| 6. | Haas | 0 | 38 |
| 7. | VCARB | 0 | 36 |
| 8. | Williams | 0 | 17 |
| 9. | Alpine | 0 | 13 |
| 10. | Sauber | 0 | 0 |
