F1 journalist Lawrence Barretto sees that Lando Norris has a tough task ahead of him to overtake Max Verstappen, but he does not think it is impossible. In his opinion, both gentlemen sounded quite confident at the media day in Brazil, and it could well mean that the race at Interlagos will provide a lot of fireworks. Barretto includes some historical data in his analysis.
After the Mexican Grand Prix, Lando Norris’s deficit is only 47 points. It can be reassuring, but also not: Norris has to make up twelve points per weekend to beat Verstappen. It’s a tough task, but not impossible, thinks analyst and journalist Lawrence Barretto. In his opinion, Mexico provided proof that emotions can run high, just like in 2021, when Lewis Hamilton and Verstappen fought for the title. In Mexico, Verstappen drove Norris off the track twice, for which he received a ten-second penalty twice.
However, Verstappen managed to prevent Norris from winning the race, and he lost not thirteen points, but ten. ‘Title rivals and old friends Verstappen and Norris came close to each other in Austin and Mexico. Norris was only given five seconds in Austin, while Verstappen suffered two ten-second penalties in Mexico. As a result, Norris is now 47 points behind him as we head to Brazil,” Barretto wrote F1.com. ‘Interlagos is a classic F1 track that effortlessly combines long straights with rolling low, medium and high speed corners.’
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Verstappen has already won a few times at Interlagos.
“The circuit requires your full attention and almost always provides a spectacle,” the Brit continues. ‘The perfect location for chapter three of the evolving rivalry between Norris and Verstappen.’ However, Verstappen does have better statistics in South America, where Verstappen has won twice, including last year, when he won nineteen victories. ‘This time, however, Red Bull returns to Brazil in the fiercest battle with McLaren and Ferrari. Judging from recent races, the RB20 may even appear to be the third fastest car of the three.’
‘He can console himself with the knowledge that there are still 120 points to be earned’
Verstappen will receive a motorcycle penalty in Brazil this weekend. On Sunday he will start five places lower on the grid than where he qualified on Saturday. Although the gap is closing and engine penalties are not exactly desirable at this point, Verstappen is not concerned. “He seemed relaxed when he talked about the championship, as he has been all season,” Barretto noted. ‘That is probably because his lead at 47 is still considerable. Yet this is the smallest difference since after the Monaco Grand Prix in May. At his peak his lead was 84 points after twelve races.’
The Dutchman is not concerned with that at all. “He can console himself with the knowledge that there is still a maximum of 120 points to be earned,” Barretto thinks. ‘Norris has to average twelve points per weekend to win his first title. That will be a challenge for Norris, as he has only done it once this year, in Australia, when Verstappen dropped out. He faces a tough task in Brazil as it is a sprint weekend and Verstappen has won all four sprints this year despite not having the best car.”
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Verstappen also won the sprint race in Austin, despite not having the fastest car.
Barretto cites historical data
However, the Briton does not think that it is impossible for Norris to overtake Verstappen. He points to a number of historical cases. ‘Räikkönen won his title in 2007, while he was seventeen points behind the McLaren drivers with two races to go and twenty points to fight for. “Similarly, Alain Prost came back from an eleven-point deficit with two races to go in 1986, and Nelson Piquet overcame a fourteen-point deficit with three races to go in 1983,” points out Barretto.
‘Given how efficiently McLaren operates and how well Norris drives, having fine-tuned many details in qualifying and the race, a comeback of such epic proportions is not that unlikely. On Thursday, Norris sounded his most convincing yet,” the Briton said. ‘With Verstappen’s grid penalty, it is almost certain that they will meet on race day. The big question on Thursday in Brazil was whether either would change their approach when they meet again on track. Both said no. Verstappen appeared as confident as ever. Get the popcorn ready.’
