Zverev faces a tough challenge against Taylor Fritz, second in Group Ilie Năstase, who only lost to Jannik Sinner. For his part, the world number 1 will face a Casper Ruud in top form, who aims to surprise the two-time Grand Slam champion in their semi-final duel.
Zverev in top form against Fritz
The American number 1 has all the credentials to return to the semifinals of the Finals, as in 2022. Fritz had an impressive campaign at the US Open, reaching his first Grand Slam final before falling to the almost unstoppable Jannik Sinner. However, he has taken an important step forward in his career, showing that he can aspire to the most important titles. Taylor has nine wins against Top-10 players this season, three of them against Zverev.
This week, Fritz scored a crucial victory against Daniil Medvedev in his opening match. Despite a loss to Sinner, he secured his spot in the semi-finals by defeating Alex de Minaur. Against the Australian, Fritz struggled in the first set due to a bad first serve, which cost him a break. However, he improved his accuracy and took advantage of key moments to claim a tight victory (5-7, 6-4, 6-3).
On the other hand, Zverev reaches the semi-finals brimming with confidence. He has not given up a set and achieved an impressive victory over Carlos Alcaraz. The world number 2 dominated the John Newcombe Group and is one of the big favorites for the title. Zverev has achieved 69 victories this season, one more than Sinner, and is on an eight-match winning streak since winning the Paris Masters trophy.
Zverev has eight consecutive victories since the Paris Masters
This is the fourth time that Zverev has made it beyond the round of 16 in seven appearances in the event that brings together the top 8 in the world, with titles in 2018 and 2021. The match is expected to be a closely contested battle between two players who They thrive on their serves. Zverev has been more consistent with his serve and returns compared to Fritz, which gives him an advantage.
However, Fritz has a 6-5 head-to-head advantage, including three straight wins since Wimbledon. He also triumphed in his only two indoor hard court matches, at the 2019 Basel Open and at the Laver Cup a few months ago.
Sinner unstoppable, Ruud seeks surprise
Jannik Sinner could not arrive in better shape, as he reaches the semifinals with three consecutive victories in the round of 16. As in 2023, he advanced as the undefeated leader of his group. However, this year he has been even more dominant, with an incredible 2024 campaign in which his momentum shows no signs of slowing. With a record of 68-6 this season and seven titles, the Italian is the clear favorite to win the ATP Finals.
Since Cincinnati, Sinner has a 23-1 record (including six wins against Top-5 players), with his only loss coming in the China Open final to Alcaraz. This week he defeated De Minaur, Fritz and Medvedev without showing any significant failure. In almost flawless form, it is difficult to bet against Sinner, especially with the support of the Italian public, which has been a major factor in recent days.
For his part, Ruud secured his place in the semifinals after winning the first set against Rublev. Even though the match went to a third set, Ruud’s consistency helped him achieve a 6-4, 5-7, 6-2 victory, maintaining great confidence. The former world number 2 has surpassed the group stage in all three of his participations in the ATP Finals and reached the final in 2022.
Jannik Sinner has 14 wins against Top-10 players so far this season.
Ruud has little to lose against an unstoppable Sinner, who seems to have everything going for him. However, Ruud has already defeated Alcaraz and has had near-flawless serving performances against Zverev and Rublev, holding more than 75% of the first serves and winning at least 70% of those points.
Sinner and Ruud have only met twice, both in very different circumstances, at the 2020 and 2021 Vienna Opens. On both occasions, the Italian won in straight sets, on the same hard indoor surface as the ATP Finals. It remains to be seen how Ruud will counter Sinner’s game. His mission will be to maintain his serve and wait for opportunities when the Italian shows some vulnerability.
