NFL Week 12 ist fast through. They are graduating today Los Angeles Chargers (7-3) and Baltimore Ravens (7-4). It is, as numerous German media have found out in the last few days, the “HarBowl“, the brotherly duel for the head coaching position.
Unequal, but successful
Jim vs John. The last time we did that was in February 2013 Superbowl 47when John’s Ravens narrowly beat Jim 49ers despite implosion after power outage.
There are unequal brothers. John has been head coach with the Ravens for 17 years and has only been briefly questioned once in that long time (at the beginning of the Lamar Jackson era).
Jim, unlike John, is sometimes strange, often quite funny Speakers and more of a guy Wandervogelwhose projects have a rather short time horizon because, despite his quick success, he usually gets in trouble with everyone in the front office and is chased to hell relatively quickly. First he went to a small college near San Diego and later Stanford in Andrew Luck big and led them from 1-11 to a BCS bowl in two years. Then he reached out to the chronically unsuccessful Niners the Super Bowl in his second year and three NFC Finals in four years. Then he won with those that were forever below expectations Michigan Wolverines the first National Title in almost 30 years. Now he has it Chargers back on the road to success.
Despite his experience as a former NFL quarterback, Jim primarily knows one path to success: Powerful physique on both sides of the lines, high odds Running game, traditional passing game. John, on the other hand, has tried all sorts of different styles and was more or less successful: deep passing and later short passing Joe Flaccodifferent variations of offense with Lamar Jacksonvarious flavors in defense (by Dean Pees for Wink Martindales Lightning scheme too Mike Macdonalds „simulated pressures“ to Zach Orrs whatever-that-might-be-Defense).
What they both have in common: they are successful. John has the 4t best winning percentage since taking over with the Ravens in 2008. Jim has the 5th best winning percentage of any NFL head coach ever.
However, both still need one Superbowl-Ringto cement their legacy. John’s Ravens are considered “playoff chokers” in the Lamar era. For all his successes, Jim has yet to win the biggest prize of all.
The initial situation
Anyone who would have predicted a few weeks ago that the Chargers would have the better record at the beginning of Week 12 would have been considered crazy by some. But here we are.
It could be an important game for seeding Wildcard races be. But both still have a chance of winning their divisions – Baltimore of course has a slightly better chance (with a win they come within half a game of the 8-3 Steelers), but the Chargers would also be only two games behind with a win currently anything but sovereign Chiefs (10-1).
Die Ravens are considered the best team in the NFL on good days, but they tend to stink like they did last week against Baltimore and, incredibly, could even have a negative record at the moment with a little more bad luck in the close games against Cincinnati.
Die Chargers haven’t beaten many good teams yet, but at least they’ve beaten their games against them bad won confidently and played better than the Ravens in the Bengals, a “common opponent”.
Die Matchups
The Chargers were an extremely run-heavy team at the start of the season, but have had one in the last few weeks balanced mix found and increasingly tended to place their game in the hands of the wonderful quarterback Justin Herbert whose biggest fan is the head coach himself.
Herbert is not quite as good as one Patrick Mahomesbut he’s one of the few who even on his best days better can be than Mahomes – especially his deep bombs aesthetically perhaps the most beautiful passes the NFL has seen in its 100-plus year history. Unfortunately, the Chargers don’t have a really dominant buyer for these bullets in their squad, which is why a noticeable number of them fall just short of incomplete.
In this game they could Ravens defense dictate the game plan. She’s massive against the run (top-3 in EPA/Play), but a bit of a disaster against the pass (#30 in EPA/Play).
Especially from the slot and in the Center of the field It’s open like a barn door while the Chargers are there in rookieWR Ladd McConkey employ an efficient wisp who has caught the third-most receiving yards of any rookie. The Ravens might be inclined to take theirs CB1 Marlon Humphrey to dedicate to McConkey full-time. Whether the changeover to the safety position (Kyle Hamilton and Ar’Darius Washington) bears the appropriate fruit remains to be seen.
Along the sideline applies CB Brandon Stephens this year as an absolute breaking point. Because the Chargers offensive tackles Slater/Alt are stable and the Ravens edge rush is ranked in the bottom third in pressure rate, Herbert should also get time for deep passing to Stephens – the question is whether our friends Quentin Johnston or Josh Palmer can then hold onto the balls.
On the other hand, the Ravens offense is a good test for the rising coaching star Jesse Minter coached Chargers-Defensewhich is performing very well overall this year, but except Joe Burrow hasn’t seen a really good quarterback yet. At least Burrow has in phases showed where the weak points in this defense lie after he wriggled out of several sacks: cornerback. They only hold back at the very beginning of the game. If the QB buys time, they are left empty-handed.
LA’s defense thrives on the fact that the pass rush with four men at the front gets through quickly and the QB doesn’t have time to attack the defense deeper. Once Burrow had bought the time, there were big plays. For today, no QB in the NFL is better at to buy time and running up and away from the pass rush as Lamar Jackson…
Jackson could also be deadly as a scrambler. The Chargers have at the 2nd level except maybe LB Daiyan Henley no one who is even remotely fast enough to be able to stand up to Lamar athletically.
And perhaps the biggest sticking point: The Chargers play the most light boxes in der NFL. So far they’ve gotten away with it on rushing defense, but the Ravens’ running game is a different beast. Theoretically, it is conceivable that Baltimore will overrun the Chargers until they pull their safeties forward, and then Baltimore will counter with deep bombs and Jackson scrambles.
outlook
Baltimore is favored by 2.5 points. The Chargers certainly have a chance to step up if Herbert’s deep passing game sparks against the exposed outside corners, but if Baltimore lives up to its potential offensively, they will put the Bolts in their place here.
