NFL Playoff Picture after Week 12: Playoff rankings, draft order

NFL Playoff Picture after Week 12: Playoff rankings, draft order
Reading time: 6 min

Summary

  • Chiefs lead AFC despite loss, Bills and Steelers follow.
  • Lions dominate NFC, Eagles stay close behind.
  • Dolphins, Colts and Bengals are fighting for AFC playoff spots.
  • 49ers in trouble, Buccaneers keep playoff hopes alive.

The NFL Playoff Picture is a weekly look at the teams fighting for their chance to make it to Super Bowl LIX.

NFL Playoff Picture: AFC

Platz Team Division Balance sheet
1 Chiefs West 10-1
2 Bills East 9-2
3 Steelers North 8-3
4 Texans South 7-5
5 Chargers West 7-3
6 Ravens North 7-4
7 Broncos West 7-5

The Kansas City Chiefs suffered their first loss of the season last week, but got back to winning ways on Sunday by defeating the Carolina Panthers thanks to three touchdowns from Patrick Mahomes. The Buffalo Bills had no games this week and maintained second place in the conference. The Pittsburgh Steelers still hold the third-best seed in the AFC despite their loss to the Cleveland Browns on Thursday night, while the Houston Texans remain in control of the South despite a heartbreaking loss to the Tennessee Titans.

In addition to the division winners, the Los Angeles Chargers and Baltimore Ravens are also in a good position to make the playoffs, and the final stretch of the regular season will determine the rankings among these teams. The Chargers host the Ravens on Monday in a highly anticipated clash between the Harbaugh brothers.

The Denver Broncos defeated the Las Vegas Raiders this week to retain 7th place, but that final AFC playoff spot is not yet secured for Sean Payton’s squad.

In the race

Platz Team Division Balance sheet
8 Dolphins East 5-6
9 Colts South 5-7
10 Bengals North 4-7

Watch out, the Miami Dolphins are coming. Miami dispatched the New England Patriots on Sunday to win their third straight game and boost their playoff chances. The Dolphins currently have loud The Athletic a 31% chance of making the playoffs. They are followed by the Indianapolis Colts (20%) and the Cincinnati Bengals (18%).

Indianapolis and Cincinnati still play Denver and have a chance to weaken the Broncos’ playoff chances, which currently sit at 60%.

NFL Playoff Picture: NFC

Platz Team Division Balance sheet
1 Lions North 10-1
2 Eagles East 9-2
3 Seahawks West 6-5
4 Falcons South 6-5
5 Vikings North 9-2
6 Packers North 8-3
7 Commanders East 7-5

The Detroit Lions, who entered this week with the NFL’s top-ranked offense, scored just 24 points but defeated the Indianapolis Colts to secure their second straight season of double-digit wins. The North remains the NFC’s strongest division, with three teams with three or fewer losses after the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers also won on Sunday. These teams still have head-to-head meetings ahead of them that will likely have major playoff implications.

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Despite Detroit’s dominance, the Lions are far from assured of first place in the NFC – the Philadelphia Eagles, led by Saquon Barkley, have won seven games in a row. The star running back recently ran for 255 yards in a historic performance to defeat the Los Angeles Rams. Detroit and Philly are clearly the best teams in the conference right now.

The Seattle Seahawks also made a big jump this week by defeating the Arizona Cardinals and taking the lead in the NFC West. However, The Athletic still gives the Cardinals a higher chance of winning the division than the Seahawks. The two rivals will meet again on December 8th in Arizona.

In the race

Platz Team Division Balance sheet
8 Cardinals West 6-5
9 Buccaneers South 5-6
10 Rams West 5-6
11 49ers West 5-6

Things aren’t looking good for the San Francisco 49ers in the NFL playoff picture. The reigning NFC champions haven’t played their best football, largely due to injuries that most recently sidelined quarterback Brock Purdy, left tackle Trent Williams and defensive end Nick Bosa in a loss to the Packers. San Francisco’s playoff chances are currently just 11%.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers dominated the New York Giants to end a four-game losing streak and keep their playoff chances alive. The Bucs are still in the race for the NFC’s 7th seed after the Washington Commanders’ loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Winning the South is also a possibility for Tampa Bay, but the team’s chances of winning the division title are only 19% as the Buccaneers have already lost two games to the Atlanta Falcons this year.

The Cowboys, as well as the Chicago Bears and New Orleans Saints each have four wins in 2024, so mathematically they are still alive in the NFL playoff picture. However, their playoff chances after 12 weeks are less than 5%, according to The Athletic.

Projected NFL Draft Order

Pick Team
1 Jaguars
2 Giants
3 Raiders
4 Patriots
5 Panthers
6 Titans
7 Jets
8 Browns
9 Saints
10 Bengals

The Jacksonville Jaguars had no games this week and retained their top spot in the projected order for the 2025 NFL Draft. Jacksonville has a 2-9 record – the same as the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders – but the Jaguars win the tie-breaker here. Breaker because of their game plan. The team that had the schedule with the lowest win rate will receive the higher draft choice.

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