As always, we are treated to three NFL games on American Thanksgiving Day. Here are my picks for each!
PICK 1: Lions at -10
I rarely bet on spreads this large, but let me share my arguments here.
Bears fans were excited at the start of the season seeing their favorites get off to a good start. Unfortunately, after winning four of their first six games, they have been beaten in five straight clashes, which includes some heartbreaking losses in recent weeks.
Plus, the Bears aren’t the same team when they play away. They are 4-3 at Soldier Field compared to 0-4 on the road. Even from a betting standpoint, Chicago boasts a 0-3-1 record against the spread as a visiting club.
The only way for the Bears to win this game is for the Lions to beat themselves. However, I see no reason why Detroit would take this meeting lightly.
First, they face sectional rivals in front of national television. Additionally, the Lions may want to avenge a disappointing 28-13 loss to Chicago last year in Week 14. In that game, Jared Goff committed three turnovers.
The Lions largely lead the league in point differential. They are at +177, while the next best team, the Bills, are at +106. Detroit has crushed many opponents, as you probably already know.
What surprised me was the effectiveness of their defense. They have conceded exactly six points in each of their last two matches. If you pay attention to the Lions’ most recent five matchups, they have only given up 12.6 points per game. It’s impressive.
So, as previously stated, my final choice is to go with the Lions at -10 points over the Bears. Rookie Caleb Williams has a bright future ahead of him, but he’s not ready to keep up with a team as complete as Detroit.
PICK 2: the Giants at +4
Isn’t it amazing to think that the Cowboys have already won 16 games in a row at their home stadium, where it was a complete disaster this season? Dallas has lost all five of its home games, which is staggering in itself. However, the way of losing was terrible.
Overall, they were outscored 187 to 69, meaning the average points per loss margin was 23.6. And now you’re asking the Cowboys to win by a margin of five points or more? With Cooper Rush at center? I don’t think so.
I have to admit, though, that Rush did better than expected. But last week, the Cowboys still converted two of their 11 third downs.
Personally, I like to bet on NFL teams coming off an embarrassing loss, after which several players criticized themselves in front of the media. In this case, the G-Men lost 30-7 to the Bucs. After the match, several players questioned the team’s efforts. Defensive captain Dexter Lawrence said the team played sluggishly, while Malik Nabers made a similar comment.
Players who reach the NFL level have a lot of pride. When you point at them, they tend to bounce back with a solid effort. This is what I expect from New York players, especially against a hated opponent like Dallas.
PICK 3: Dolphins at +3.5
The Dolphins were scoring about 10 points per game when Tua Tagovailoa was out of the lineup. Since returning to play, they have scored 27, 27, 23, 34 and 34 points. If you do the math, that works out to an average of 29 points per game.
Certainly, Packers fans will say that Tua struggled during his career when playing in cold weather. That’s fair enough. Currently, weather forecasts indicate a temperature below 0 degrees Celsius. This is my main source of concern regarding this bet.
However, I decided to bet on Miami against the spread. His season may not be over after three straight wins, but his margin for error is razor-thin. In other words, every meeting is on the verge of becoming a one-night stand. The feeling of hopelessness usually brings out the best in NFL players.
Meanwhile, I’m a little worried about Jordan Love. Last year, he threw 11 interceptions in 17 games. He’s already thrown the same number so far, but in only nine games. Plus, the numbers indicate he was pretty bad on third downs.
If you look at Love’s last four outings, you’ll see that he’s totaled just three touchdown passes compared to as many interceptions. It’s not that good.
The Packers can win the game, but it won’t be easy to do so by a margin of four points or more against Miami’s offense.
