The seventh and final day of the group stage for the NBA Cup takes place tonight, synonymous with a joyous mess of apothecary calculations to know the eight teams who will emerge from this first part of the competition.
We prefer to warn you right away, you have to arm yourself with a little patience, or even paracetamol, to clear up the different possible cases, while only the Hawks, the Rockets and the Warriors have already composted their ticket for the matches direct elimination. Attempt at decryption.
Western Conference: menage a trois in group B, eight teams can still qualify
Qualified: Houston Rockets (winner group A), Golden State Warriors (winner group C)
Can still qualify: Portland Trail Blazers, Los Angeles Clippers (group A), San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, Phoenix Suns (group B), Dallas Mavericks, Denver Nuggets, Memphis Grizzlies (group C)
One might think that the West, with two out of three group winners already known, would be a little more readable. Houston et Golden State are guaranteed to win groups A and C respectively of this 2024 NBA Cup. So much for the only guarantees concerning the qualifications. Among the notable eliminations, the defending champion, the Lakers, saw their journey end in the group stage this year.
Placed in group B, the Los Angeles team is subject to the density of this group, where three teams have the same record before the final day. The Spurs, le Thunder et the Suns all have two wins and one loss, with one last match to be played this Tuesday. The matter could quickly be resolved if San Antonio and Victor Wembanyama dominate Phoenix in the clash of the evening, since they would be assured of finishing first.
For the Suns and the Thunder (who play against the Jazz), one success may not be enough. OKC must bet on a Phoenix victory and will have to wait until late in the evening to decide on its fate, since all the matches do not take place simultaneously. Phoenix will only advance by beating the Spurs and if the Thunder loses.
Once the head of group B is known, one place will remain to be allocated, the “wild card” reserved for the best second. The Mavericks have a good part of their destiny in their hands to obtain it: a victory against Memphis would give them a record of 3-1, with a difference in points (the first criterion for deciding between teams from different groups) very favorable. Dallas points before the evening matches at +41, when the current closest pursuer, Phoenix, is only at +19.
Be careful, however, with the Thunder, who in the event of a big success against the modest Jazz could blow away this last sesame. Last team at 2-1 before the last day, Portland will have to do very hard to reverse the situation by going to win against the Clippers, winners of their last eight games at the Intuit Dome, and with a significant gap to raise a “point average” currently of -5.
Pour the Nuggets, les Grizzlies et the Clippersall at 1-2 but still in the running, it will take quite a combination of circumstances, not to say a small miracle, to finish second in their group first of all, then even more so for the seat of best second. It would then be necessary to have a tie between all the group runners-up in 2-2, and everything would then be decided by the best difference in points. The NBA detailed the different cases in the following visual.
Which two West teams will join the @HoustonRockets and @warriors in the Knockout Rounds of the #EmiratesNBACup?
The following scenarios are applicable for the final day of Group Play games on Tuesday ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/239PlS8gcM
— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) December 2, 2024
Eastern Conference: more suspense but fewer candidates still in the running
Qualified: Atlanta Hawks (winner group C)
Can still qualify: Orlando Magic, New York Knicks (group A), Milwaukee Bucks, Detroit Pistons (group B), Boston Celtics (group C)
Paradox of this NBA Cup, the Magicwith three victories in three matches and the best point average in the East (+60), is not yet qualified. Unlike Atlanta, which lost a match but won group C. Orlando still has a very good chance of qualifying, even if it loses on Monday. The Florida franchise plays like a round of 16 face aux Knicksalso at 3-0 in Group A. The situation is simple: the winner will win the group and will be qualified. With its points difference very largely in its favor, the Magic should take the place of best second unless a defeat of more than 37 points.
Identical topic in group A, where the qualification match will be played between the Pistons et les Bucksboth winners of their first three meetings. The loser will have to hope for a heavy defeat from Orlando and not take any shine either. Detroit cannot lose by more than five points to maintain its chances, Milwaukee by six points. This Pistons – Bucks could thus offer an end to the match fought to the end since it takes place at the start of the night (1 a.m. French time), before the other Eastern matches, therefore not allowing any calculation.
Defending champion Boston will watch all this from afar, with still little hope of qualifying. Guaranteed to finish second in group C, the celtics can still end up as a “wild card” if New York loses against Orlando, and the loser of Pistons – Bucks fails to limit the gap as mentioned above. Or that Magic completely misses the point and opens the door to a little twist.
The general assessments will then determine the table for the quarter-finals, which will take place next week, on December 10 and 11.
