As has been the case several times in recent years, something new will be tried out at the All-Star Game 2025 – it will actually now be three games that will be played by three All-Star teams and the winner of the Rising Stars Challenge. Under Adam Silver, the league simply doesn’t want to be accused of ever doing “that thing with the flags” again.
Except for the player pool. As usual, 24 All-Stars will be elected, twelve from each conference. As usual, there are five “starters” per conference, 50% of which are elected by the fans, 25% by the NBA players and 25% by media representatives. The seven reservists per conference are then determined by the coaches.
The game, er, the games are on February 16th, but the fan voting starts… today. Correct. So it’s high time to give an initial interim result. The following 24 players would now be All-Stars, at least in our opinion!
Eastern Conference – Backcourt
Starter: Jalen Brunson (New York Knicks): 25 points, 56.7% eFG, 3 rebounds, 7.7 assists – 26 games
Starter: Donovan Mitchell (Cleveland Cavaliers): 23.3 points, 54.9% eFG, 4.7 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 1.6 steals – 26 games
Brunson’s scoring volume is slightly down compared to last year, partly due to his All-Star teammate (see below), but his efficiency is better than ever in his career as a starter (43.2% help from outside!) and Brunson dished out the most assists of his career. He remains the leader of the league’s third-best offense.
Mitchell isn’t quite as firmly in the saddle – according to Advanced Stats and Counting Stats, there’s a third East guard who’s even better than both of them. Mitchell, on the other hand, is the best player on the best team, which is also so good because he sacrifices touches. Defensively, he is to be seen above all the toughest backcourt competitors.
Reserve: Damian Lillard (Milwaukee Bucks): 25.7 points, 54.8% eFG, 4.5 rebounds, 7.5 assists – 22 games
Reserve: Darius Garland (Cleveland Cavaliers): 20.3 points, 58% eFG, 2.4 rebounds, 6.5 assists – 26 games
Statistically, Lillard would have arguments to be ahead of Mitchell and also Brunson. Dame is experiencing the bounceback year she was hoping for, even if some of the performances are still fluctuating and, despite winning the NBA Cup, Milwaukee is still just a mediocre team (net rating: +0.2).
Garland, on the other hand, is the reason Mitchell willingly sacrifices touches – also in a bounceback year, (significantly) more efficient than ever before and than any other volume scorer among the East guards. There are still some competitors, but this argument combined with the team’s success is the deciding factor in Garland’s favor.
Eastern Conference – Frontcourt
Starter: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Milwaukee Bucks): 32.7 points, 61.7% eFG, 11.5 rebounds, 6.1 assists, 2.2 saves – 23 games
Starter: Jayson Tatum (Boston Celtics): 28.2 points, 54.5% eFG, 9 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.7 stocks – 24 games
Starter: Franz Wagner (Orlando Magic): 24.4 points, 51.9% eFG, 5.6 rebounds, 5.7 assists, 2.2 stocks – 25 games
With Giannis and Tatum, no explanation is needed. Wagner probably won’t keep the place, but since it’s about the current status, the “games played” argument doesn’t apply yet (there are teams that have only played 25 games).
And then the decision is clear. Wagner was the best player on a top-four team in his conference, a top-10 player this season according to various Advanced Stats, and, not least because of his two-way skills, the third-best frontcourt player in the conference after Tatum and Giannis.
Reserve: Karl-Anthony Towns (New York Knicks): 24.8 points, 59.4% eFG, 13.9 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 1.9 stocks – 24 games
Reserve: Evan Mobley (Cleveland Cavaliers): 18.4 points, 60.1% eFG, 8.9 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 2.6 stocks – 25 games
Reserve: Jimmy Butler (Miami Heat): 19.4 points, 57.5% eFG, 6.1 rebounds, 5 assists, 1.7 stocks – 19 games
Yes, we’re not overwhelmed either (apart from the outstanding Towns, who will probably take the starting spot from Wagner). The other two places would be strong candidates in other years (or in another conference), but there isn’t that much happening behind them at the moment.
A word about Jaylen Brown at this point: Most people would expect the reigning Finals MVP here, and he’ll almost certainly be there again. Unfortunately, Brown is currently posting the weakest rate of his career (50.6% eFG) and has a negative box plus/minus (-0.3), which should hardly be possible for players of his reputation in their prime.
It’s not a big issue at the moment, also because Boston is plowing through the league as usual, but Brown is playing a down year by his standards, not an All-Star year. He still has some time left.
Wild Card: Derrick White (Boston Celtics): 17.4 points, 59.7% eFG, 4.8 rebounds, 4.9 assists, 2.2 stocks – 25 games
Wild Card: Trae Young (Atlanta Hawks): 21.5 points, 46.6% eFG, 4 rebounds, 12.1 assists, 1.5 stocks – 26 games
It can still be a second Celt! So why not White, who is not a classic star but is now once again showing the impact of a star in an outstanding collective, hitting over 40% of his threes and being one of the three (two?) best guard defenders in the East. Winning can be an argument, and a player like Derrick White helps winning.
Winning is also the (quiet) argument for Young, who is preferred here over two young, statistically very noticeable competitors whose teams are doing significantly worse, LaMelo Ball and Cade Cunningham. Although Young has hardly hit a barn door this season, his game has actually developed in the right direction, he is becoming more committed, even without the ball in his hand. He leads the league in assists, which doesn’t hurt either.
But let’s be honest: LaMelo is actually one of them with his 30.2 points per game – even though every regular season game seems like an All-Star Game for him. Or precisely because of that.
Western Conference – Backcourt
Starter: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC Thunder): 30.3 points, 56.1% eFG, 5.5 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 2.9 stocks – 25 games
Starter: Luka Doncic (Dallas Mavericks): 28.9 points, 54% eFG, 8.6 rebounds, 8.2 assists, 2.6 steals – 20 games
For now, the only discussion necessary between these two is who they would rather have on the team. We want both.
Reserve: Stephen Curry (Golden State Warriors): 23 points, 57.9% eFG, 5.2 rebounds, 6.7 assists, 1.8 stocks – 20 games
Reserve: Kyrie Irving (Dallas Mavericks): 23.9 points, 59.1% eFG, 4.7 rebounds, 5.3 assists, 1.5 steals – 24 games
Is it appreciated enough that Irving is hitting 47% of his threes – on just under seven attempts per game? Uncle Drew has put up louder boxscore numbers before, but it’s debatable whether he’s ever played BETTER than he did this season. He has been the most consistent Mavs guard over the first few weeks of the season and needs to be part of the team, whether as a reserve or wild card.
Curry is curry. The minutes have decreased (31 per game), but the impact is the same. The Warriors offense is 19.4 points better when he’s on the court – and it’s a disaster without him. Maybe Dennis Schröder can change that…
Western Conference – Frontcourt
Starter: Nikola Jokic (Denver Nuggets): 30.9 points, 60.8% eFG, 13.3 rebounds, 9.9 assists, 2.5 stocks – 21 games
Starter: Kevin Durant (Phoenix Suns): 25.7 points, 59.1% eFG, 6.5 rebounds, 3.7 assists, 1.9 stocks – 15 games
Starter: Anthony Davis (Los Angeles Lakers): 27.8 points, 55.3% eFG, 11.4 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 3.2 stocks – 25 games
Jokic is non-negotiable – Durant actually wouldn’t be either, only the missed games are a problem. But: When he’s there, Phoenix almost always wins (13-2), so we can turn a blind eye. It’s stupid enough that Durant won’t be an All-NBA player at the end of the season on this course.
The final place goes to Davis, who is no longer quite as dominant as he was at the start of the season, but is still in what is probably his best season since moving to the Lakers. It’s not his fault the team’s defense looks so weak. Hardly any other player in the NBA has as much to do every day as Davis.
Reserve: Victor Wembanyama (San Antonio Spurs): 23.6 points, 55.4% eFG, 10.3 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 4.6 stocks – 21 games
Reserve: Jalen Williams (OKC Thunder): 21.7 points, 55.9% eFG, 6.1 rebounds, 5 assists, 2.8 stocks – 25 games
Reserve: Alperen Sengün (Houston Rockets): 18.6 points, 48.5% eFG, 10.6 rebounds, 5.2 assists, 2.2 stocks – 26 games
Wemby would have had arguments to be a starter straight away – if KD’s missed games are taken into account more, he could take his place, and there is also a statistical closeness between him and Davis. The offense has gotten better, even if his three-point volume still puts some off. The defense is the best in the league. He should always be there from now on.
Williams lacks the résumé to take the place of LeBron James in reality, who will of course be re-elected by the fans. But Williams undoubtedly plays All-Star basketball, is the second most important scorer and playmaker in the Thunder’s collective, and is very efficient – and the defensive all-purpose weapon. The Thunder’s historic defense also works because J-Dub makes a credible ring protector in the absence of Chet Holmgren AND Isaiah Hartenstein at times.
Sengün would have made things easier for us if his layups had come in more often. 59% at ringside is weak for a wing and terrible for a big man… but almost everything else is pretty good. Sengün is a strong playmaker for his position, and he now contributes positively to the team defense at the back (the biggest difference to Domantas Sabonis, who could also be here). The bottom line is that he is the most important player on a top 3 team in the West, even if the Rockets are not a star team but a collective team.
(Which also applies to the current 2-seed. Ja Morant is a star, but has only played 16 games so far. Jaren Jackson Jr. is having a strong season, but is not quite at Sengün’s level in terms of impact. Sorry, dear Grizzlies .)
Wild Card: James Harden (LA Clippers): 22.1 points, 48.2% eFG, 6.5 rebounds, 8.3 assists, 2.3 stocks – 26 games
Wild Card: Anthony Edwards (Minnesota Timberwolves): 26.2 points, 56% eFG, 5.4 rebounds, 3.8 assists – 25 games
Yes, Harden’s efficiency is manageable. Would anyone have expected a 15-12 record from the Clippers at this point, with the Clippers being driven almost entirely by his decisions offensively? Neither do we – his influence on the team is massive, even if the counting stats of, for example, De’Aaron Fox or LeBron look better at first glance.
Counting stats are not a problem for Edwards – the only thing that bothers the Wolves star is the drop in playmaking (5.1 assists last year) and the not always appealing team dynamics at the Wolves. After all, the defense there is now elite again, but there is still a lot of room for improvement offensively, even with the best player. Of course, Ant should still be there, especially if he can be cheated into the frontcourt.
